Islands first-

Way back there, I commented on somebody else's blog that one of the best places for new sustainable changes to be encouraged would be islands.  Everything is just a little more urgent, a little more obvious there- it should be easier to convince people of the need for substantive change.

So- here's a great island to watch in the next days and years - Zanzibar has been without power for 8 days now.  They're learning fast.

Everybody complains that photovoltaic power is "too expensive".

You know, it's really not.  At the moment, hotels in Zanzibar are running diesel generators- and it's costing them 20% of total income, daily- just for fuel and water.

Could have paid for a good solar array with that money.  All you have to do to get your economics calculations to swing around towards solar is: factor in a real power outage from the grid, sometime or other.  A month or so of "business is still working", compared to the same time period  of "business totally shut down" - really changes the bottom line.  It's been very very hard to get people to listen to that- the idea that "power" could go "out" for more than a few hours has been unthinkable in the developed world for decades now.  They thought it was unthinkable in Zanzibar too, 8 days ago.

The tricky part is- the panels will NOT put out as much power as the generator can.  So you have to learn to USE less.  That's where folks refuse to change.

But you know- if you live on Zanzibar right now- I'll bet it's making a lot more sense to you, that you really don't need some of those frills.  

It may be this is how people will learn.  Keep using- right up until the day all the power is cut.

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Update June 5- the power in Zanzibar is still out.  And it going to stay out for a month, apparently.  Here's a story from a shopkeeper; and one that explains the power situation.  Basically, their power situation is/was unique- the island gets its power from a hydro plant on the mainland- through 38 kilometers of undersea cable.  Um.  What?  It's the cable that's broken- it's 28 years old.

A month? or more.  Talk about incentive for change.

Hm.

Not sure what it is, but recently the New York Times has been a little cranky about accepting my comments- am I ticking somebody off?  Today I commented on an Op-Ed, about the world food crisis.  Two hours later; 2 other sets of comments have been added- but mine has not. (update, 1 hour later; they did finally post it- but boy they thought about it for a long time.)

Hey, it occurred to me- I have my own blog!  So; I'm putting my comment here.  Tell me what you think.

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Lots of heat in the comments- evidence of strong convictions- but little light, or full system analysis.  World hunger has multiple causes; can we start admitting that up front? Unfortunately multiple causes gives the various factions the quick ability to point their fingers at the others.  And prevent action.  Can we be a little more adult than "but he started it!"?

Fact- yes, people are dying, now, because they are hungry.

Fact- index funds, college endowments, and hedge funds have dumped MANY BILLIONS of dollars into the ag futures markets in the last 2 years. Is that an upward pressure on prices? Yes.

Fact - profits for food (and oil) speculators have been record highs recently.
Fact- all around the world, anti-poverty programs had been making progress; millions of people were "being taught how to fish", instead of just being "given a fish" today. All that work, progress, and hope- is gone.

The profits for the hedge funds come right out of the pockets of the poorest people on earth.

How much longer will we have to point fingers, and discuss who is most to blame- before we roll back the futures market regulations to what they were 2 years ago?

What's more important to you- the profits of the financial sector? Or food in the bellies of the starving?

ALL causes of hunger should be dealt with- as soon as possible. Speculation in food should be the easiest cause to deal with, immediately.  Then- let's deal with the others.

Meanwhile- maybe Wall Street could get together, and toss one of their spare billions - just one, out of the trillions- to the UN, so they can buy food.

Hey, guys- you'll get it right back- they'll be buying your food, paying your prices. And you might sleep better.

— Greenpa, Minnesota

And Mexico wins the rationing lottery-

No, this isn't quite rationing- but it's the first move in that direction.

From the BBC today: Mexico's poor get food cash boost

Interesting that it's in the Business section, isn't it?

"The Mexican government is to give its poorest citizens a monthly cash payment of 120 pesos ($11.55; £5.85) to help them cope with rising food prices."

Basically, their decision so far, is to continue paying speculation inflated food prices- spending taxpayer money to prevent a few folks from actual starvation.  (And quite certainly not preventing a few others.)

The gutsy government move would be to A) prohibit food speculation (and hang a few speculators to show you're serious), and B) initiate actual rationing of basics - to ensure that no citizen actually starves - starves - due to financial shenanigans.

Not quite there- but moving in that direction.

Within the financial community, there is growing admission that it's the speculators who are pushing oil prices up.  This is from the Washington Post today: Crude Analysis

Much of the article deals with the question of "how much does it drive the price of oil up when a big player "predicts" much higher prices?"  - which is certainly an interesting question.  But it ends with this casual bomb:

"Roger Diwan, a partner at the consulting firm PFC Energy, adds that people speculating about rising prices don't have to hoard oil in traditional ways. He says the financial players -- such as pension and hedge funds or firms like Goldman -- that are driving the market now don't need to own ships or tanks; they can just bid up prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where they can buy on margin. 'The paper market is infinite,' he says, 'and you don't have to pay for storage.' "

Like, duh, everybody knows- it's the "financial players ... that are driving the market."

EXACTLY THE SAME THING IS TRUE OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES - otherwise known as "food".

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In case you're worried, it's not really my intention to become a "financial doom" blog here.  What I'm still trying to focus on, and am still furious about, is the world food supply, and prices.  Right this second, the news train is focusing on oil, though, so it may be helpful to point out that the problem is parallel- and works exactly the same way.

Any responsible government needs to ACT.  Right quick.  And the new laws, and new regulations, need to cover food, as well as energy.

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Meanwhile; back at the farm.  We're planting garden, and trees, as fast as we can.  Which means we're pooped out a lot.  That's going to be a factor for some time yet.  Today, I get to dig trees to ship to customers.  Used to have a couple employees to share the work...  but, uh... can't afford them any more.  Price of gas, and all that...   gosh, it's all connected, somehow...  (did I say that already?)  :-)

cheer up, Brian! - #2

So as not to leave you all feeling too desperate and hopeless: 

This is a song I've known for ... gads, decades, now.  

The message to take away- he is not kidding.  None of these people are, and the song never was.

But.

They survived.  And they still smile.  So can you.  Bad times- really bad times- are a long way from new in this world; or even in this country.

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The first version I learned was this one: 

“Dirt Farmer” (Tracy Schwarz) lyrics:

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lost all his corn
And now where’s the money to pay off his loan?
The loan that he signed to pay off his corn
To pay off his loan.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he’s dry as a bone
And the only thing growin’ is a ten-pound stone
And when it gets round he'll roll it on down
To the tax man in town.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lives all alone
His wife and kids left him, and took all he owned
And on the next round, they took all they found
That wasn’t nailed down.

Now the poor old dirt farmer how bad he must feel
He upset his tractor, got caught in the wheel
And now his head is the shape of the tread
But he still isn’t dead.

Now the poor old dirt farmer, he lost all his corn
And now where’s the money to pay off his loan?
The loan that he signed to pay off his corn.
To pay off his loan.
To pay off his corn.
To pay off his loan.

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Folks survive. And smile. We need to decide to survive; and still smile, sometimes.

And some not so bright signs.

I've got a series of articles to run past you here; on a variety of topics.  To me, they all point forcefully in one direction.  Which no one on the planet is taking; yet.  But we're going to have to, soon.  (Don't worry, Ilargi; I'm not really planning on trying to swipe your style...  :-) ).  

Be aware, in all this, that these headlines, and the news, are being "cooked", consistently, to make things seem a little nicer than they are.

(Incidentally, this is still not my promised "next" post- this stuff isn't requiring any thought- it hits me like a sledgehammer.)

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Article 1, Washington Post: "Food costs push Bangladesh to brink of unrest." 

No, it's not unrest, it's the brink of utter civic chaos, or revolution at least. 

 

"Last month, about 20,000 garment workers defied a government ban on demonstrations to demand higher wages and protest skyrocketing food prices, especially on such staples as rice, which have doubled in price since last year. Some of the workers, mostly women, hurled rocks and bricks at police and vandalized factories in what the local media dubbed the start of the 'Rice Revolution.'  Troops from the Bangladesh Rifles, a paramilitary force that normally patrols the country's borders, now operate and guard the crowded government-subsidized rice shops."

"Bib Norjaham, 40, and her three children said they thought they had already been through the worst of it when their rice and lentil farm was washed away during floods four years ago... 'We haven't had a full stomach in months, and work is very hard to find,' said Joshna, who said she is on a waiting list for a job as a sewing-machine operator. 'There isn't much we can do. The prices are just too high. We can't go back to the village. The land has eroded.' "

" 'If it weren't for emergency rule, there would be revolution right now. Things that would be happening in this country would be unbelievable," said Nazima Akter, 33, president of the United Garment Workers Federation, which has 20,000 members. "People are already really fed up when they are working hard -- sometimes 12 hours a day -- and they still can't afford basics.' "

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Article 2; Reuters/NYT; "Buffett sees long, deep recession." 

The second richest billionaire on Earth thinks things are much worse than most are saying, and the recession is not going away anywhere he can see.

One sign, besides the billions he's made by ignoring Wall Street pundits, that he's worth listening to: 

 "Buffett also renewed his criticism of derivatives trading.

'It's not right that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being eliminated, that entire industrial sectors in the real economy are being wiped out by financial bets even though the sectors are actually in good health.'

Buffett complained about the lack of effective controls.

'That's the problem," he said. "You can't steer it, you can't regulate it anymore. You can't get the genie back in the bottle.'  "

Sounds like good sense, with even a modicum of humanity in it.  

(Aside-  please notice that little phrase "in the real economy" ... people in the "financial sector" use it all the time.  See- there's a "real" economy- you know, where people produce actual goods and services, and buy and sell them?  Then- there's the "financial sector" - which they claim is desperately necessary in order for the "real" economy to function...  but you know what?  Their choice of words tells us- they know perfectly well we could all do without them.  They're just swapping piles of money around- charging fees for each swap and pretending to be doing something worth while- but they're just blowing up their own balloons.)

But even Mr. Buffett is not carrying that equation all the way out; and that's what it is, and that's what we MUST do.

Can't steer it.  Can't regulate it.  But it MUST be steered, and regulated- or we face utterly unforgivable amounts of human misery.  = ?

Are you listening Mr. Buffett?  Congress?  Anybody?  If the tools we have don't work; then: we must find, and use, different tools.  

That, of course, requires effective leadership, which as we know, the USA is utterly devoid of at the moment; and other world entities are not showing much either.

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Article 3; the BBC: "Tensions Flare In Central Sudan" .  No, they don't- they have a civil war in progress; again.  Over... oil.

Scavenger birds pick through the charred remains of houses and shops in the central Sudanese town of Abyei, four days after violent clashes between troops from the North and South of the country ended.

The place is almost empty - tens of thousands of people fled from the town and surrounding area to escape days of sporadic fighting.

Looters steal what they can - beds, pots and even clothes - from the thatch huts that are still standing, the northern soldiers who now control the town looking on.
There is almost nothing left of the once-vibrant market - just the charred skeletons of buildings

After a tour of the town in a UN armoured personnel carrier, the head of the UN mission in Sudan, Ashraf Qazi, was clearly shocked by what he had seen.

"We have been to the centre of Abyei and it doesn't exist any more," he told journalists travelling with him.

This is not fantasy, folks- but the spread of war, focusing on control of oil, and its dollars.  Nigeria is already over the brink, too, though the world pretends otherwise.

This trend is not decreasing; quite the contrary.

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Article 4; CNN: "Vallejo, California, files for bankruptcy" 

Vallejo is " Vallejo is the 9th largest city in the San Francisco Bay Area by population,the 45th in the state of California,and 189th in the U.S. by population also."  (Wikipedia)

" ...to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused by soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue.   The San Francisco Bay-area suburb of about 120,000 residents became the largest California city to seek bankruptcy protection."  (CNN)

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Article 5; BBC: "Indonesia pushes up fuel prices" 

"The Indonesian government has raised fuel prices by nearly 30%, prompting fears of widespread unrest. ... 

The government is struggling to meet the cost of fuel subsidies as global oil prices escalate. ...In several cities it is beginning cash handouts, intended to shield around 19 million poor families from the price rises.

But our correspondent says many Indonesians are worried the price hikes will mean that basic goods and public transport will also become more expensive.

After sharp rises in the price of rice, it could push many more families towards poverty, she adds.

Millions of Indonesians currently live on less than $2 a day."

BTW, I got word yesterday that Websters Interplanetary Dictionary is about the change to definition of "powderkeg";  to: "Indonesia".

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And we could go on, of course.  If you have an appetite for constant dire news, Ilargi is wonderful; likewise Sharon.  And as you know, I indulge myself from time to time.  It's not that hard to find it these days.

Which is the actual point of this post.  Little by little, the world IS recognizing that "things" are getting really really bad-

Then next thing you know, somebody is going to suggest - gasp - DOING SOMETHING about it.

No, really, I'll bet ya.  It'll happen.  Although at the moment, the only thing the "leaders", financial and governmental, are doing, is pointing fingers, and doing "analyses", all of which show- it's not their fault.  No action.

Possibly, when Bangladesh collapses into total chaos, and 100,000,000 (one hundred million) desperate, penniless refugees stream into India and Burma/Myanmar (I'm assuming 50 million straight deaths, first) - the world in general will say - "huh; should WE do something?"

What is the first tool at hand?  Available to all governments- and unused, so far?

RATIONING.

Fuel; and food.  Both need to be rationed- today.  First within countries- and then; for the first time- internationally.  

They won't be, of course.  We need a lot more dead bodies, first.  If you're tenderhearted, I don't recommend you look at this one from CNN: "Starvation claiming Ethiopia's tiniest".  Only 120,000, or so.  Twice the numbers just killed by the Chinese earthquake- to huge international attention, with a visit from Ban Ki Moon, in person.

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Unlike my previous request for your help in raising consciousness about the role of speculation in the world food crisis (which is still there, duh)- I don't see that there is anything effective for us to do here, yet.  The world in general is not ready to see the need; though it's obvious as all hell to anyone who actually thinks about it.

So here is my question to you- who- and where- on the planet will be the first to admit that rationing is needed?  And implement it?

Will it be Bangladesh?  One could hope- but it's a country, like many, with a wildly wealthy elite, who hold the power, and vast population of the utterly destitute.

Haiti?  If it's still there.  The UN has the only real police force in Haiti.  They could do it.  They should.  Can Ban Ki Moon find the will?

Who?  Where?  What's your guess?

Evidence of intelligent life!

I've been kind of stymied for a post for a couple days; the one I promised "next" requires some brain power to put together; and I haven't had any brains for several days.  Mostly tired from pushing various urgent icebergs right on the farm.

But I just happened across this bit of news, and it cheered me up so much I had to share it.

"SUVs Become Endangered Species" - according to CNN.

Apparently, the "American consumer" has actually changed directions; dealers are almost unable to give SUVs away now.  "Small cars are gone within a week; SUVs are sitting here since last summer."  And, "For the first four months of this year, truck and SUV sales are down a collective 24.8 percent. SUV sales plummeted 32.8 percent while pickups dipped 19.9 percent..."

The article has something for everyone - if you just want to cheer signs of intelligence, there's plenty; if you're into "schadenfreude" - well, there's an abundance of potential for that, too.

Turns out lots of people bought $40k machines- still owe about $20k or so- but the book value of their perfectly good SUV is now about $12k.  If you can sell it.   " 'The cars are literally just sitting, and it doesn't matter how much you sell them for,' Fernandez says of the SUVs and trucks nobody wants anymore. 'It's amazing. I've never seen it this bad -- ever.' "

So people who blithely bought big "Suck Uglies", as I called them; ignoring those of us who pointed out it made no sense at all- can't even sell them and switch to a smaller car to save the gas money.  They'll save hundreds of dollars in gas- and lose thousands of dollars on the swap.

Ok, it's hard not to do a little gleeful dance and sing "toldjaso, toldjaso!"

I remember making long, logical, eloquent arguments- completely ignored, of course- that virtually no one in North America actually needed an SUV.  Lots of people wanted them.  But until they looked in their bank account, and found it empty- they really didn't understand that "want" is not the same as "need".

Here perhaps is the first large public reminder of that for the US.  There will be more in the days ahead, to be sure.  Most of them are not going to be fun, of course.  Maybe we should enjoy this one, while we can.

"Want" is not the same as "need".  It's only spoiled children who think they're the same.  That's an uncomfortable truth; but one we're going to have to swallow, and live with, every day.

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Hm.  Actually.  I COULD use a nice comfy SUV - on the farm.   We do a lot of pottering around; harvesting, taking data, in all kinds of weather.  Would be nice to have a machine with a good heater that didn't leak rain and snow.

Tell ya what- any of you out there own an SUV you want to get rid of?  I'll take it off your hands- for just $500.   

You pay me.

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By gosh, CNN is just becoming a fount for enlightenment.  Apparently the financial community has just discovered that there may not be a lot of oil left out there.  Who'da thunk??  The analysis isn't finished yet though.  Maybe we'll luck out.  :-)

Which shell has the pea?

Yesterday I drove in to the "City" alone, for long postponed and urgent shopping.  I had a very human experience which I enjoyed enormously, and which is relevant to current threads here, to be expanded upon in the next post.

Basically, the "misdirection" magicians use to fool us into thinking that the pigeons have actually materialized in their hand, is a booby trap waiting for all us humans, all the time, every day.  You know the pea is under that shell... but having been distracted for a microsecond- your brain loses track.

I was buying a stick of 1" white schedule 40 pvc water pipe.  It's 10 feet long, of course- and totally impossible to not see.  Being an awkward object, after presenting it to the checkout girl (cute!) for her to scan, I carefully placed it, upright, leaning against the counter's display of impulse items (candy, nail clippers) , and firmly told her to NOT let me forget to take it with me, after we finished scanning all the other little objects (connectors, o-rings, geared lopping shears and 14' pole pruner to replace those stolen last fall with the truck, etc.)  

Humor, you know.  Don't let me forget this elephant, here.  She cheerfully joined in the game, ha ha.   So we turned our attention to the small stuff, and the credit card ritual.  Finished it all up, I collected the pole pruners, lopping shears - awkward enough to handle- then we both laughed, and reminded each other not to forget the 10 foot stick of pipe.  Which had, indeed, faded into the mental background in the meantime.  Ha!  Almost forgot it!  We humans are so silly.

I enjoyed it, she enjoyed it, the bagger and the adjacent cashier enjoyed it.  I struggled through the exit with this very awkward load- and set off the un-cleared merchandise alarm.  Somehow.  

Hm.  maybe it's the pole-pruner?  Back and clear (maybe) - nope, still setting off the alarm.  Glitch.

The very bright and competent check-out girl decides it's just something about the huge mass of metal I'm wrangling, and pushes me through the detector, and resets it; indeed, I'm manifestly not concealing stolen merchandise.

Cheerful waves goodbye, wishes for a good evening, and we all move on to the next chore in our worlds; for me, the fun of figuring out how to get a 10' piece of pipe and a pole pruner into in my vehicle, along with the other stuff already there...

Having managed to overcome the perversity of the inanimate, and get the pipe actually inside - cattywampus- I'm closing the hatch, to look up and be greeted by cries of "Sir!! Sir!!" - from a train of 4 people pursuing me rapidly across the parking lot...

"You forgot the bag!!"  - the little bag, of tiny parts.  Which I- we- had indeed totally spaced.

Since we were concentrating on the joke of "don't forget the enormous obvious pipe", and the tiny bit of flirting going on between the cute young shopgirl and the harmless old guy with the white beard.

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The moral of the story is; now that you've finally seen the elephant in the room- that doesn't mean all the cats, dogs, tables, chairs, sofas, children, books, toys... and whatnot that you knew were in the room beforehand - have disappeared. 

They're still there, and can be tripped on, if you forget it.

:-)