The Upside Is Really Great Surf.

Polka Dot Gallows today, from the LA Times, forsooth.

So.  El Niño is here- and on track to be the most intense on record, actually.  Which means?

Floods, mudslides, drought and crop failure in Africa and other places;

11 million children in immediate need of food.

But hey!  Really great surf in California!

Oh, and beach communities battered into oblivion.

Always look on the bright side!

And in that vein; isn't it great how our ability to focus on the utterly trivial is being honed into perfection by our need to ignore reality - at any cost?

Progress!

It's just all a bit much. And, Ebola.

Hi Guys.

According to Blogger- you're all still here, tuned in.  I'm honored.

The reasons I've been quiet are still the same; massive overloads In Real Life - and a lack of anything genuinely useful to say about current world insanities.

Today, though; I do have something useful to tell you; out of my particular Biology/Evolution/Etc. background.

We're experiencing the largest outbreak seen of the Ebola virus.  Should you worry?  Or not?

You need to pay attention, is what you need to do.  (Not to me.  To what's going on.)

So far I have seen a great many of the disasters, problems, conundrums that are known to occur during "plague" outbreaks; already happening.  We have history to look at; I recommend it.  People can be harmed in epidemics by many things other than the bug itself.

Here is a list of "Already here" bad things, that do not help:

Politicians lying about the extent of the epidemic.
Politicians telling you :"There's no risk to us!"  then- 'There's almost no risk to us!"  And I've already seen "We'll probably get a case or 2 inside the US, but we can handle it."
Press printing any blathering nonsense they can find.
Finger-pointing between nations and agencies.
New committees.
An experimental "cure" - with a tiny supply; and fights about who gets it.
Con men selling fake cures to desperate people.  (saw an ad on Facebook already)
Wall Street types jockeying to capture the profits.
Military roadblocks going up - and cities sealed off - too late.
Desperate people sneaking through roadblocks, and bribing their way.
Soothsayers announcing "This is IT!  Run!"
Panic.

All of those are happening now; and will likely get worse.

Here's my "no bull" advice.

Don't panic.  It doesn't help.  Is this virus dangerous - to you and your family?  Yes, it is; but we don't know how it's going to turn out.  Disease organisms follow the "rules of Epidemiology" - when you can average 1,000 different viruses and bacteria together.  Individually - they do not have to follow anyone's rules.  It could mutate to be more infectious; or less.  Or both, on different expansion fronts.

This scenario is possible: You live in Denver?  Far from everything.  But; the incubation period for Ebola is stated as "between 2 and 21 days."  That's really dangerous.  An infected person, at day 15 of his infection; gets on a plane.  Yes, he might be shedding virus by then.  Gets off the plane in Cairo, Egypt, 2 hours later, having transmitted it to 2 other people; the steward, and the lady in the next seat.

He stays in Cairo, vanishes into the countryside and is never recognized as dying of Ebola.  The steward flies next to Paris, becomes symptomatic and infectious 17 days later, infecting an entire flight crew...  and on; until an infected but not yet symptomatic person gets off the plane in Denver... goes to a rock concert/ all night rave-revival party - throws up...

"It's not likely!"  No, it's not; but the bigger the epidemic gets, the more chances; and there's really no way to prevent that kind of scenario - short of shutting international air traffic; off.

If that happens?  You'll know it's getting serious; and that it's too late to be effective, and the next step is martial law.  In Denver?  Yes.

This kind of thing has happened repeatedly, historically, in plague events, going back to Rome, at least.  But they didn't have air traffic; or the Mexico City slums - etc.

This virus is not capable of suddenly mutating into a disease that can blow in the air from somewhere miles away.  An epidemic in Africa is not a threat to you - today.  One case in NYC - is not much threat even to NYC.  If, however, we wake up one day and there are 2,000 new cases in NYC today- that's a threat.  Neither hospitals nor police will be able to control things.

Think about what you can do, if you have to.  I would say start thinking now.

And the statistic I would watch is the daily CHANGE in death rate and infection rate.  That was a  lot of the reason I decided to write this; I've already seen one "seer" shrieking "It's gone asymptotic!!"  My respect for that source dropped through the floor; not that it was all that high.  Just as pure statistics; that's crap.  Yes, there's a jog up in deaths and new cases - in the past 2 days.  It could very easily be a pure fluke; better reporting yesterday, for example.  The probability of "fluke" is much higher than "asymptotic!"

If the rate of change keeps climbing up for a week- yes, I'd start to worry.  If the rate of increase keeps going up for 2 weeks, with no break; I would have to predict that a great many people will die before it's over; but we still cannot know when, or where, it could suddenly shift into a trivial virus.

Like everything else in our future now; we do not know what will happen next.

Keep an eye on the Wikipedia "ebola" page.  Seriously.  I know, that used to be a joke line; but it's not anymore.  It is the only source of information on the technical knowledge of the virus that just says this; right up front: "Transmission: It is not entirely clear how Ebola is spread."  That's from a CDC document; not one I could find, but its cited here.  The WHO at the moment is putting out the official line that "ebola is very hard to catch, and requires direct 'bodily fluids' contact".  The Russian weapons experts are saying "maybe not."

 The great majority of sources will have some "agenda" they want you to swallow.  Wikipedia now has dozens of actual experts monitoring the information changes - and if you put something up that anyone can criticize as "not true" - down it comes. 

Don't panic.  Pay attention.

And find a copy of Sinclair Lewis's "Arrowsmith" - a novel about exactly this situation; from the viewpoint of the medical researcher.  They gave him the Pulitzer Prize for that novel; and he refused it. His insights into human behavior during a plague - are... well, Pulitzer material.

The entire text is online; here; Arrowsmith text   Public domain, pretty sure.
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UPDATE: 8/14 - I managed to find the WHO current statistics page.  They report new totals for deaths and new cases, every 2-3 days.  There are lots of ups and downs in the numbers- imagine the difficulties of "counting", and reporting, in the middle of it all.  It's clearly horrific for those caught in it. Overall, it does appear that new cases and numbers of new deaths are increasing; but it's a long way from "asymptotic."  Somebody out there - could use these data to produce a good graph.  I'd rather see a graph of new cases and new deaths than total cases and total deaths, and I haven't seen one.  I'd do it; but- several people would kill me if I stole that time.  :-)

Well. How Rude!

So it turns out my first review will be of Google's "AdSense".  Not rats.  Or, maybe it is rats.  You know, the nifty way Google offers (repeatedly) for bloggers to make a few pennies with easy-peasy advertising on their blogs?

Now this blog here is what you'd call a "middling" performer, at the moment.  Far from the top (though way back in the early days, when I was posting daily, and visiting other bloggers, and doing the whole megillah, I did get up into the top 2% on Technorati for a while) - but also very far from the bottom.  (Hm; actually; just checked Technorati for the first time in years; this blog is ranked 56,258* - out of 1,322,165 blogs they monitor.  Last time I did math; that puts me in the top 5%, right now- yes?  That includes a lot of dead blogs, of course.)

I expected signing up to prostitute myself would be very simple and straightforward- that's certainly what Google led me to believe.  Take a look at their basic pitch, a little video (I think they borrowed the Geico gecko - cute, huh?) about 1 minute long.  Sounds simple, no?

So I bit the bullet.  Filled in all the blanks with all the information.  Clicked all the boxes.  And?

They turned me down!  Rudely; in fact.  They didn't just say "Sorry, but we are not able to open an AdSense account with you at the moment."; no, they informed me, in one sentence, that "this account has been disapproved."

I think they need an expert in communication, somewhere to tell them that "cannot approve" and "disapprove" are not identical messages.  They disapprove of me.  Oh yeahhh!?  Well, I disapprove of YOU.  So there!

; - )

And- surprise- friendly, local, Google, our warm internet buddy, has gone Big Biz- and they can't really be bothered with... um... customers, I guess.  I got NO feedback on - why.  Just (twice) this rude and truly exceptionally uncommunicative email:


   "Thank you for your interest in Google AdSense. After reviewing your
application, our specialists have found that it does not meet our program
criteria. Therefore, we are unable to accept you into our program.

   "We have certain policies in place that we believe will help ensure the
effectiveness of Google ads for our publishers as well as for our
advertisers. We review all publishers, and we reserve the right to decline
any application. As we grow, we may find that we are able to expand our
program to more web publishers with a wider variety of web content.

   "Please note that we may not be able to respond to inquiries regarding the
specific reasons for our decision. Thank you for your understanding.

   "Sincerely,

   "The Google AdSense Team"

I'm wounded.   Not only did they turn my offer of self-prostitution down- they can't be bothered to tell me why!  Not a hint.  Well; except that it's my fault, and they disapprove.  I don't meet their criteria?

You know- you could have saved my time- and yours - by stating your criteria; in a format I could comprehend.  Gotta say - you didn't.  And you didn't inform me after the event, either.   Not, in my book, sound business practice.  I'm informing the Wall Street Journal.  Look for Google stock to start dropping tomorrow.

And; my specialists think your specialists are a bunch of self-inflated nincompoops.

Basically, I'm laughing about this; of course.  At most, I expected to be earning a pittance.  But more seriously- I read all their stuff; so far as I can tell from reading their official information there is no reason why I wouldn't fit right in.  Hey; no porn here, right?  You don't even see an f word in the comments here, more than twice a year.  Exactly what is there here for Great Google to disapprove?  He whimpered.  I am clueless.  Again.  Naturallee.

Rude, rude, rude.

Just too hard to concentrate on rats today with this kind of insult lurking about in my hindbrain.

So; Review: Google AdSense:  Two Thumbs Down.

And a neener-neener.


(and I'm sure some "specialist" at Google will remark "Wow, talk about biting the hand that feeds you!" - since the host of this blog is, um Blogger; which is now owned by Google...  except, guys - manifestly, you aren't feeding me...)

------------------------------------------------------------

   * Update, next day; today my Technorati rating jumped up over - 10,000 blogs.  2/21 - 46,521.  To give you and idea how all this works.  : - )

Fukushima info.

I've been avoiding posting info and discussion on the nuclear power plant meltdowns in Japan for three reasons; 1) the available information has been awfully crappy; 2) there's tons of discussion elsewhere for those who want it, and 3) it's depressing as hell, and who needs that right now.

But; Nicole Foss over on The Automatic Earth posted a link today that I think you really have to see. This guy provides the hardest information available; analysed by an unquestioned expert from inside the nuclear power industry; in a very clear and calm way.

The expert is Arnold Gundersen. Just a bit of his info: "A former nuclear industry senior vice president, he earned his Bachelor's and Master's Degrees in nuclear engineering, holds a nuclear safety patent, and was a licensed reactor operator. During his nuclear industry career, Arnie managed and coordinated projects at 70-nuclear power plants around the country. " More résumé stuff here.

He's been making videos for general information since the disaster started. But this one startled me; with critical information - which we are not hearing. Yes; it's worse than they're telling us; still. Watch, and listen. Then pass this on. Personally; I find it criminal that our own government is not telling us what they know; manifestly; they are not.

Gundersen Postulates Unit 3 Explosion May Have Been Prompt Criticality in Fuel Pool from Fairewinds Associates on Vimeo.

The highlights for me: there have been "pieces of fuel rods" - found

up to TWO MILES away from the power plant.

Uranium, Plutonium, and Americium-have been captured

out of the air- in the continental USA.

And while Arnie won't say so quite yet; I don't see any

"alternative hypothesis"to the one that says there was a

small atomic explosion in the spent fuel pool at #3.

That's what "criticality" means. Enough uranium got pushed together

to start a chain reaction. When that happens outside a nuclear bomb,

the explosion quickly blows the uranium apart, and the reaction

stops. Most of the difficulty in building a good big bomb is

figuring out how to hold the uranium/plutonium together long

enough for a "good" energy yield.

If you're in the mood for more real information on all this;

the NYT has a good one up, about internal management

practices in the Japanese nuclear industry (and ours.)

Iceland Launches New "Piece Corps"

Iceland today has announced that they are sending aid to both the European Union and the USA, in the form of a new "Piece Corps".

Finding themselves with hundreds of unemployed well educated and reasonably well behaved youth, it dawned on them that Iceland is uniquely well placed to be providing desperately needed help and advice to other countries suffering from financial collapse.

Icelandic couch-potato youngsters have by now watched countless hours of financial pundits explaining what happened to them, and having nothing better to do, and wanting to "getoffadisrock" as they say in Icelandic; they have proven eager to volunteer for this new humanitarian adventure.

"Look", Ingrid Ingridsdottir explained, "We've, like, survived it. And when we read the financial news coming out of the ashes of the European Union, and from behind the barricades at the US Federal Reserve - any one of us obviously has a much clearer idea of what's actually going on than any of those dimdims. We just hate to see them suffer."

Starting in mid-April, flotillas of geo-thermal powered kayaks will begin carrying hundreds of eager, blond, idealistic semi-virgin volunteers to the financial centers of the Big 8. The first group is expected to reach New York by April 22, and a second wave is being launched to arrive in Washington DC just a few days later. London and Belfast are on the list, but dates are uncertain.

The volunteers heading for Washington include a second kind of Piece Corps volunteer; engineering students. "As everyone knows, Iceland is the center of the world for real geo-thermal power development." said Ingridsdatsun Ingridsdottirdottirson. "We've been monitoring the thermal signatures of the entire Earth for some years now. The satellite data is absolutely clear; somewhere in the vicinity of Washington DC there is a new volcano erupting. The signature is much hotter than Kilauea in Hawai'i. True, all we can see so far is the immense atmospheric upwellings from the heated air; but that much hot air has to mean a real geothermal source someplace. With our Icelandic expertise, we're sure we can find the source, and tap it. Judging from the satellite data, there's enough energy there to power the entire USA for the entire foreseeable future- no nukes needed."

The entire world wishes these modern saints good luck.

And- I don't know how I missed this when it first came out; but it's an appropriate follow-up to everything else.

Dear NY Times: Just So You Know:

Dear NY Times: Just So You Know:

Once again today, you've sunk to the quite slimy level of parading the leering grin of a mass murderer on your electronic front page.

You purport to provide useful insight into the murderer's mind; something we should all crave.

But in fact, you're just selling advertising.

I'll tell you exactly what's behind the grin- he's smirking at YOU; very specifically; because he's won. You're giving him everything he ever dreamed about.

Immortality. His picture on the front of the New York Times. You are his puppets. You are, in reality, the reason for his insanity, and the deaths he caused.

I, however, am not his pawn, or yours; and this is to inform you that each time I find his photo on your pages, or any other snuff porn pandering to all of humanity's worst sides; I turn you right off.

I close your website-and any others that do the same- and do not visit again for the next 2 days. You're going to lose several fractions of a penny from your advertisers; which should horrify you.

Oh, and, I'm passing this on.

Harvard Business School Has No Clothes.

I have a little epiphany for you. One that hit me as I was driving across multiple states recently, observing our world.

It's summed up in a blindingly oblivious "Op-Ed" piece, in today's New York Times. From the author's blurb:

"William D. Cohan, a former investigative reporter in Raleigh, N.C., writes on alternate Fridays about Wall Street and Main Street. He worked on Wall Street as a senior mergers and acquisitions banker for 15 years. He also worked for two years at GE Capital. He is the author of 'House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street' "

In his piece entitled "The Elizabeth Warren Fallacy", Mr Cohan asks (and he's serious) "Why create an expensive bureaucracy to “protect” consumers from their own stupid decisions?"

The mind boggles. Mine does, anyway, and mine is not all that easily boggled. And this is from an author who writes elsewhere about wretched behavior on Wall Street.

Literally going back to the Code of Hammurabi, the very existence of all law is justified by the fact that, yes, innocent persons need to be protected from predatory humans.

But here, a scion of the Business World, slickly suggests that sheep exist to be sheared, and that this is how the world works. This is what they teach MBAs, these days. Any means to a profit - not specifically forbidden by law or (silly) regulations- is entirely fair. Reap all you can, before the regulators catch on.

Which behavior has put our culture where it is- virtually all the "real" capital in the "real" economy has been skimmed off, via slick marketing of easy credit - e.g.;

"

Borrow $10,000 on your credit card today! Just use this EasyCheck {Same as cash!} - And for this Special Limited Time Offer, this loan will be at only 1.99% until paid off!"

(Until you sneeze, then it goes into the default rate of 30%...)

With the real capital sucked out of the Real Economy into the bizarre fantasy world of The Financial Sector (which owes itself trillions of dollars more than actually exist anywhere) - we're broke. And breaking further. All of us.

In my opinion, the best, most solid economic statistic available is the rate at which CEOs and top corporate executives buy and sell their own stock in their own companies. Through a grotesque oversight, this is public information. At the moment, those who know the most about their own futures are selling their own stocks at a rate of 1,400 to 1.

No, that's not good.

The epiphany?

Gradually, over the years, our societally accepted definition of "business" has changed.

It used to be; and we still teach our children, that "business" happens when: you have a need; I fill it; you pay me for my work; and we both benefit.

Now what we teach our MBAs is, if there is no need; create one; and if you can trick your opponent out of an extra penny, good for you. Mutual benefit, in fact, is literally no longer in the definition.

What you have there- is precisely - the definition of sociopathy.

We teach Sociopathy as "Business". We really, really, really do.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are multiple sites on the web that deal with definitions of sociopath, and lists of character traits. They don't all agree, but take a look; and compare the traits to those flaunted by "business" professionals.

(If you're a movie fan, take a look at Gordon Gekko this way.)

For the last many decades, the business world has very effectively insinuated huge respect for themselves into every aspect of our culture. All good things flow from business; without it, we will all perish. There you have a truth beyond examination. To question it, even, is punishable. The metaphors quickly reach to religious dogma; heresy; and excommunication.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Maybe you already knew this. I've always known there were slimy characters here and there; but it was a new idea, hitting me with force, that we actually accept, and teach, a group of behaviors and attitudes we also recognize as incredibly destructive and dangerous. Genuinely pathological. Sick.

Try saying "Harvard School Of Sociopathy" a few times; see how it fits.

Today; it's to the point where a respected writer can suggest, in a respected forum, that stupid people deserve to be tricked, and "we" should waste no money to save them. (Never mind that the public will then, provably, pay for their prisons, hospitals and funerals, and sociopathic children.)

What happened to the idea that business should not involve traps and tricks, in the first place?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Manifestly, The American Way Of Business now thrives - survives- on tricks and traps. The entire model is sociopathic. And is run by trained sociopaths.

Spread the word. So far, sociopath is still a label most would like to avoid. It's a very bad thing to call someone. A very hard word. Maybe it needs to be spray-painted all over Wall Street.

Good news.

Everybody needs a little these days, right?

I (me) finally found the cause of my illness; which has kept me >50% bedridden for many months.

Good ol' overmedication.

I really don't blame the docs (exactly).  But shortly after my bellyache posts here, and right after one of my docs prescribed a new drug to add to my list; I decided I really needed to go back to square one, and find out what my unmedicated symptoms might be.

So I took what the docs call a "drug holiday", which they chuckle about when they mention it.  A holiday from drugs, not on them.

I quit.  Not cold turkey, but tapering off; and I told the docs after I'd done it.

After 2 months of letting them all clear out of my systems- holy fecal material - I'm well.

Or at least back to my old complaints, not the new ones that were so debilitating.

So those thousands of you who have been losing sleep worrying about me- all the worry vibes seem to have worked, and I'm back to my quasi-normal self.

:-)

The rebound effect, though is fierce.  There's a shipload of work that's been waiting for me, so I'm like, um, really busy.  On the road, at the moment, visiting, talking, looking.

But smiling.

Talking About Hunger in the USA-

One of the things I admire about both Crunchy Chicken and Sharon Astyk is that they fearlessly charge into discussions that are bound to become difficult and rancorous. Lots of things just plain need to be talked about; regardless of hurt feelings. So they do.

I'm about to do that too. However, I want to start with a disclaimer: I'm not judging anybody here. I'm really not. But we have a problem no one is facing, and we need to face it.

In the last couple weeks Hunger In the USA has gotten a lot of attention, and rightly so. One of the nifty little facts that came out in the NYT was that currently 1/8 of adults are getting food paid for by the government, via what used to be called "the food stamp program"; and 1/4 of our children.

That shocked a lot of people. In truth, I'm pretty angry that people were shocked. We should have been horrified- and aware and doing something about it long before it got to this point. Once again, I'm embarrassed to be a citizen of this country. We let 1/4 of our children grow up in such poverty? Unforgivable. Not a word I use at all lightly.

At the time, Sharon put up a post on the topic; and my comment on it was the second one. My topic here is a little different.

There, I pointed out that quite a few people who are actually hungry- are in situations where their parents or caretakers truly just do not know how to feed them.

What I want to say here - non-judgmentally, remember! - is that many who believe they are hungry- are not. They do not know what real hunger is; in spite of those ubiquitous advertisements with skeletal children in them.

Today the Washington Post has chimed in; and I think without knowing it, they've hit a nail right on the head. There's both an article, and a rather long photo gallery.

These were the photos that set me off. Neither this woman, nor her child, are actually "hungry", in the sense of not having enough to eat. They certainly may be malnourished- but hungry? No.

I do not, in the least, doubt that the woman believes she and her family are hungry, and that she is frantic about the welfare of her children. I would be willing to bet she's entirely sincere, and in no way a "bad person"- quite the contrary. But her problem has been misidentified; and the help being offered her- will not help.

Later in the photo gallery there is another mother- who is skipping meals, so her children can eat. She's skinny. And I'll believe in a second her stomach hurts, and that her children's do too.

There is the crux of why I'm writing about this. One of my myriad ex-girlfriends (ok, 3) fiercely accused me during one of our breakups of being a "problem solver"; a great sin for someone who didn't want her problems solved, she just wanted me to listen to them. (Evidently this is a fairly common source of friction between males and females, but I REALLY don't want to talk about it.)

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima etc. Loathsome as it may be, I really do prefer to come out the other side of a difficulty in an improved state, if possible.

Hunger in the world is actually a major focus of my life. To hear that one out of every four children in my country requires help from outside the family in order to not be hungry sets me going. Big time.

A tried and true way to fail at problem solving is to apply the wrong solution to a problem. For example, like trying to fix a flat tire with a wad of bubble gum. Looks kinda like it might work, if we're lucky. But in fact, it's just truly dumb.

I think we have abundant proof available that we're applying bubble gum to our hungry populace. It isn't going to help; which is by far my biggest objection; and it's insanely expensive, in a time when the country doesn't have a dime to spare. The money could and should be spent so that the recipients of the aid actually get help for their problem.

Problems come in layers, more often than not. The next layer to this particular one is that we know many people on food stamps are not actually hungry- but we don't want to deal with what's really going on. It's embarrassing, from all directions. So, rather than cause some forced blushing- we continue as a nation to pretend: lack of food is the problem; and money is the answer.

Very simply- lack of food is NOT the problem; and money is NOT the answer. Can't get much simpler than that.

The problem is- we refuse to talk about, or deal with, the problem.

If you haven't read the Washington Post article, now would be a good time. Surprise! They actually talk about all this.

I was delighted to discover that; and that others are struggling with it.

Now what?

Once you've discovered your solution to a problem isn't a solution; and the problem isn't what you thought it was - you must, must, must - throw everything out and start over.

What we're doing right now, to continue the flat tire simile, is "hey, maybe if we got the gum hotter, it would work." "hey, maybe if we mixed the gum with gasoline, it would work" "hey, maybe if we put sand in the gum, it would work." "hey, mixing the gum with gasoline almost worked, let's try mixing it with brake fluid instead."

It's painful to throw out a "solution" that you're so deeply invested in. But anything else is almost certain to just add to the "fixing the fix" cycle.

A black hole for the people; and the money.

Deep Wisdom

That's what y'all hang around here, for, right?  And here we are, New Year's Day- the premier day of the year for passing good, useful wisdom around.

As it happens, I have some for ya, right here.  :-)

Years ago- I was visiting my younger brother in Boulder, Colorado.  It's a university town- one of the renowned party schools of the world.  Tons of well-to-do elite scions floating around town, with money to spend.

So of course, there's a downtown with plenty of flashy shops to soak up all the excess cash.  And lots of attractions.  My brother was taking me there to get some lunch in one of the many up-scale boutique nosherys; and specifically to experience the abundant buskers.

It wasn't a word I was familiar with up to then- they're street performers; expecting you to put a bit in the hat after you enjoy their act.  My brother told me that an extraordinary collection of wildly diverse and insanely talented buskers had also been attracted to the huge supply of loosely attached dollars- so it sounded like good fun to me.

We drove to an off-main parking lot (close in was always impossible) and walked two blocks into this core area of yuppie enterprise.  One block away- I stopped- and started to laugh.

And I couldn't stop.  I kept laughing- in various uncontrollable fashions- all the way up to the object of my amusement.

It was a New Age bookstore- advertising, in big block letters obvious a block away as its principle product-

EXOTIC WISDOM!

Ok, I'm still laughing.

Oh. my. god.

And, of course, the windows were full of spiffy tools- Buddha and Ganesh statues, books on Zen stained-glass making, Druid-Sufi t-shirts, you name it.

Hey, man!  Don't gimme none o' that HOME-GROWED wisdom!  I want me the real, EXOTIC stuff!!

LOL!!!!!  I am, truly, still laughing.

See- in my book- genuine wisdom is; um WISDOM.  And utterly priceless; wherever you can find it.  Its always rare, and hard to find.

And I do truly think anybody who goes looking for EXOTIC wisdom- has utterly failed to understand what wisdom is.

Please understand, I'm not opposed to picking up a bit of wisdom from Buddha, Master Kong, Pliny the Elder or Younger, Mel Brooks, or any of them guys.  It's just that in my experience, what they have to offer is truly no more acute than the insights to be gained from my neighbor; his grandmother, or my almost 4 year old daughter.  And the proportions of wisdom to nonsense are really the same from one source to another, too.

That's all I'm going to offer today- take any scrap of wisdom you can get ahold of, and hang on to it.  

It's about all we can do, in the days to come.

oh, yeah.  The buskers were great.  One of them had an eidetic memory - for Zip codes.  He had anyone in the audience tell him a Zip code- and he would tell you exactly where it was. Like, in a big city, the block.

And he could.  All except- mine, for some baffling reason.  He knew minute towns of 50 people all over the US- but not mine.  hm.

Financial Tooth Fairies, Ex Machina!!

Zooming out to work on the guinea run before the sun gets hot, still I couldn't resist sharing this bit of astonishing fiscal humor with you before I go.  From the New York Times: "A New Tool Announced To Support Home Loans."

The boys in The New York Stock Casino have come up with a new game!!  (that's what a "tool" is-)  it's called- "covered bonds".

Oh, be still my heart!  Finally, the magic wand is waved, and the mortgage collapses all go away.  If you're not cackling and rolling on the floor in helpless laughter yet, you really should be.

They're all chanting "I DO believe in "tools"! I DO! I DO!"- and hoping, praying, the rest of the world will join them.  Puffing new hot air into the housing bubbles- which just don't hold air anymore.  There's no such thing as housing expansion.

It's a short article.  If you can see anything besides smoke and mirrors in these "covered" bonds, by all means, let me know.  It's pure, pure, puerile fantasy.  This is what our financial leadership has been reduced to.  What they're really showing us is that their entire system of air castle builders has no idea- none- what real wealth is; or real value.  All they know is: money; and if I sell you my pile of money, and charge you interest on it, you can sell me the same pile of money back, and charge ME interest on it; then I have a big pile of money again, and I can sell it back to YOU, and charge YOU interest on it; and we all get bonuses at the end of the year!  Forever!  Really!

Then, look at the list of who's going to be selling these new covered bonds "secured by pools of assets like home loans" - and then read this little bit in the article: "Unlike mortgage securities, which pass all the risk to investors, covered bonds collateralized with mortgages would continue to perform even if the mortgages backing them default — as long as the bank remains solvent."

ROTFLMAO!!!!

I'm going to run right out, and bet that Wells Fargo is going to remain solvent!!  Sure I am.

oh, dear, tears of helpless laughter in my eyes.

What fools these mortals be.

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Update-  OMG!!!  And it just gets better and better!  A followup article, NYT- has a little more discussion about what the heck a covered bond is, and what it might do-  and contains this gem:

"Covered bond markets exist in many European countries. In some of them, laws make the legal standing of such bonds clear, but Mr. Paulson and the other agencies concluded that no legislation was needed, and that policy statements by regulators would suffice."

My god, why aren't these guys writing for Saturday Night Live! ???  I mean- just look where running our entire financial system based on "policy statements by regulators" has gotten us so far!  By all means- we need more of that!  

Tears in my eyes!!

You can see it: in "Blazing Finances" --  "Legislation?  We don' need no stinkin' legislation!"  Mel Brooks, I hope you're taking notes.  Or Broadway could really use "Springtime For Paulson"; coming soon.

"Springtime, for Paulson, and Bernanke.  Winter, for Congress, and hope."  It even scans.

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And the Washington Post chimes in! "Executives from four banks -- Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo -- stood shoulder to shoulder with Paulson at the news conference and issued a joint statement saying they would consider issuing covered bonds, although they were not specific about their plans."

Guys, you're killing me!!  "Shoulder to shoulder!!!"  forsooth!!  Our brave, brave little soldiers in pinstripes!!! - and all committing to- oh, wait, they didn't actually commit to anything at all.

I'm gasping for breath here!!!

Thank god the "Financial Sector"  (gasp!  choke!  cackle!)  is good for something these days; I haven't laughed this hard in years!

signs of the times-

This post is not as much fun as dirty dishes or guinea fowl; but it's another one where I just can't help gritting my teeth and shaking my head.

Big news?  Front page, NYT?  Golly, the industry based on pandering to the Wall Street Grand Casino staff, is set to tank; there may be $18 Billion less in "bonuses" this year for them to spend on - you, stuff.  There's a cool graph of bonuses- damnedest thing, right after the neo-cons got in, the bonuses started to skyrocket.

Tiny news?  So little you can't find it?  Suicides- caused by foreclosures.  In the "Health" section of ABC news.  Way down there.

One suicide.  Would you wanna get there are hundreds more, that have already happened?  And how many "investigative journalists" are there digging out that story?  ?  It's nice to know, the mortgage company said they were "devastated".

There are times when I don't like the news writers much.

oh, yeah, and the news in the middle- visible, but barely - 2 more national banks were seized; on Friday; just a bit after the Grand Casino closed for the weekend.

The Future of The World... Illustrated.

Today and recently the blogosphere is dripping with blog producers and blog consumers lathering about - The Future.  And if there is one.

This is entirely understandable, and believe me, I'm not smirking at all those silly people.

We are, indeed, standing on the edge of the cliff here.  Read Sharon; read Ilargi and Stoneleigh.  

The thing is, I've known this for a long long time.  I do believe in physics, I do, I do.  And if you do- this collapse of industrial insanity has been inevitable for a very long time.

But how, forsooth, to explain that?  Lucidly, and convincingly, to folks who have not spent decades looking and listening, and studying.  What we are all taught, growing up, is that "progress" is glorious, inevitable, and endless- and good.  They pound that in hard.  It's not easy getting folks to the point where they can see it's a dogma based on fallacies and illusions.  And it's not fun. 

Luckily for us, California has produced several years of completely clear data.  It isn't necessary for you to understand "the science of economics" (ROTFL!); or physics, or the chemistry of global warming.  You just need 4th grade arithmatic.

California is burning, yes?  Badly.  Happened last year; and the year before.  And what are they doing about it all?

Not planning, that's for sure.  Here it is: the reaction to the entire state burning down- the reaction of the wealthiest, most forward looking people on the planet.

Cost of firefighting in California; by year:

Can you say "impotent"?

The fact is; our world governments are all in this state at the moment; utterly unable to cope with reality.  The various forces at work are able, time and again, to prevent action.

Manifestly- California needs to agree- fires are more costly than they used to be; we must budget more for dealing with them.

Manifestly- the state of California has failed to do anything about the problem, year after year.

Reality, physics, will prevail; every time.  Which is why California is on fire again.

Another litany of years of inaction is here; NYT: Asleep At The Spigot.

This is perhaps the largest problem I see for humanity at the moment- regardless of how or why we got here- our joint decision making processes are universally paralyzed.

Yes?

Universally paralyzed.

Pick a disaster; any disaster- as the pundits are sifting through the rubble, you will find this phrase, over and over: "repeated warnings were ignored..."

How we got here; why; and what happens next- is tome material; cannot be crammed into a blog.

What do you need to do about this?  Realize- you're on your own.

Technology will not save us.  Because any truly revolutionary technology will be fought tooth and nail; and subverted, and co-opted; by the same forces that have paralyzed our states.

Policy will not save us.  Ditto.  They'll be holding policy discussions at our funerals.

What might save us is- us.

Communities, working to stick together, and face realities.  

The best initiative I know of there is Rob Hopkins' "Transition Towns" - 

Tons more on his website; and in video/audio.  

There's hope there; if you're willing to roll up your sleeves.

just can't help myself

It finally got to me.  I have NO time for this, but I just can't stop myself.

The Stock Market- the "financial sector" - is entirely populated with absolute idiots.

And, just for fun; most of them are certifiable gambling addicts, to boot.  Self-deluding, in the extreme.

Two stories, running simultaneously in the New York Times, right now; prove this beautifully.

Story 1; "Oil and Food Push Prices Higher".  

Gasoline prices rose 5.2 percent in May and were up 21 percent compared with a year ago, according to the report, released by the Labor Department on Friday. On an annual basis, inflation ran at 4.2 percent compared to May 2007. The rise in the index was slightly more than economists had forecast.

Food prices rose again in May as Americans paid 5 percent more for foods and beverages than a year ago.

... Minus the cost of food and gasoline, inflation was 0.2 percent for the month.

Ok, got that?

Story 2; "Stocks Up After Inflation Data."  This is the entire story, here; a note;

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is extending its gains in early trading after a pair of economic reports point to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates stable when it meets later this month. The Labor Department's report on core inflation, which measures price increases but strips out volatile food and energy costs, met investor expectations.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for June has fallen to 56.7 from 59.8 last month. The market had expected the reading would remain unchanged.

Taken together the reports seem to make the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, rather than raising them, when it meets June 24-25.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up about 124 at the 12,266 level.

Oh.  My.  God.

So- the market is ignoring the real inflation rate- by stripping out food and energy.  Why?  Because they want to, is why.  It makes them feel better.  And they're ignoring the fact that their pundits thought wrong on consumer "sentiment" (otherwise known as "consumer confidence", a measure of how willing consumers are to believe in the future, and spend money).  

Pundits right?  Yay!  Pundits wrong?  Yay!

My jaw is just dropped, right on the floor, at how anyone can claim, with a straight face, that these morons know what they're doing.

The only possible action from a responsible government would be to move in with troops, and lock 100% of the inhabitants of the "financial sector" in a loony bin.  Or maybe Guantanamo?  They're about to go out of business there, I understand.  We could consider it a Federal employment Initiative; keep that facility working.

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On the good side: also in the NYT right now: Speculators Become Targets.

Legislators are aware that constituents are angry about speculators driving up food prices (and fuel prices).  And they're starting to call, seriously, for action.

Did your emails and calls a couple weeks ago have anything to do with that?

YOU BET THEY DID!!!  I guarantee it.  It's quite possible that your email was the first one that staffer read, and they kind of blew it off.  But then they got another one.  And another.  Hey, it's a trend.  And the talk started- and here is a nice fat article in the NYT- and rising awareness.

Thanks, guys, and congratulations.

And some not so bright signs.

I've got a series of articles to run past you here; on a variety of topics.  To me, they all point forcefully in one direction.  Which no one on the planet is taking; yet.  But we're going to have to, soon.  (Don't worry, Ilargi; I'm not really planning on trying to swipe your style...  :-) ).  

Be aware, in all this, that these headlines, and the news, are being "cooked", consistently, to make things seem a little nicer than they are.

(Incidentally, this is still not my promised "next" post- this stuff isn't requiring any thought- it hits me like a sledgehammer.)

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Article 1, Washington Post: "Food costs push Bangladesh to brink of unrest." 

No, it's not unrest, it's the brink of utter civic chaos, or revolution at least. 

 

"Last month, about 20,000 garment workers defied a government ban on demonstrations to demand higher wages and protest skyrocketing food prices, especially on such staples as rice, which have doubled in price since last year. Some of the workers, mostly women, hurled rocks and bricks at police and vandalized factories in what the local media dubbed the start of the 'Rice Revolution.'  Troops from the Bangladesh Rifles, a paramilitary force that normally patrols the country's borders, now operate and guard the crowded government-subsidized rice shops."

"Bib Norjaham, 40, and her three children said they thought they had already been through the worst of it when their rice and lentil farm was washed away during floods four years ago... 'We haven't had a full stomach in months, and work is very hard to find,' said Joshna, who said she is on a waiting list for a job as a sewing-machine operator. 'There isn't much we can do. The prices are just too high. We can't go back to the village. The land has eroded.' "

" 'If it weren't for emergency rule, there would be revolution right now. Things that would be happening in this country would be unbelievable," said Nazima Akter, 33, president of the United Garment Workers Federation, which has 20,000 members. "People are already really fed up when they are working hard -- sometimes 12 hours a day -- and they still can't afford basics.' "

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Article 2; Reuters/NYT; "Buffett sees long, deep recession." 

The second richest billionaire on Earth thinks things are much worse than most are saying, and the recession is not going away anywhere he can see.

One sign, besides the billions he's made by ignoring Wall Street pundits, that he's worth listening to: 

 "Buffett also renewed his criticism of derivatives trading.

'It's not right that hundreds of thousands of jobs are being eliminated, that entire industrial sectors in the real economy are being wiped out by financial bets even though the sectors are actually in good health.'

Buffett complained about the lack of effective controls.

'That's the problem," he said. "You can't steer it, you can't regulate it anymore. You can't get the genie back in the bottle.'  "

Sounds like good sense, with even a modicum of humanity in it.  

(Aside-  please notice that little phrase "in the real economy" ... people in the "financial sector" use it all the time.  See- there's a "real" economy- you know, where people produce actual goods and services, and buy and sell them?  Then- there's the "financial sector" - which they claim is desperately necessary in order for the "real" economy to function...  but you know what?  Their choice of words tells us- they know perfectly well we could all do without them.  They're just swapping piles of money around- charging fees for each swap and pretending to be doing something worth while- but they're just blowing up their own balloons.)

But even Mr. Buffett is not carrying that equation all the way out; and that's what it is, and that's what we MUST do.

Can't steer it.  Can't regulate it.  But it MUST be steered, and regulated- or we face utterly unforgivable amounts of human misery.  = ?

Are you listening Mr. Buffett?  Congress?  Anybody?  If the tools we have don't work; then: we must find, and use, different tools.  

That, of course, requires effective leadership, which as we know, the USA is utterly devoid of at the moment; and other world entities are not showing much either.

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Article 3; the BBC: "Tensions Flare In Central Sudan" .  No, they don't- they have a civil war in progress; again.  Over... oil.

Scavenger birds pick through the charred remains of houses and shops in the central Sudanese town of Abyei, four days after violent clashes between troops from the North and South of the country ended.

The place is almost empty - tens of thousands of people fled from the town and surrounding area to escape days of sporadic fighting.

Looters steal what they can - beds, pots and even clothes - from the thatch huts that are still standing, the northern soldiers who now control the town looking on.
There is almost nothing left of the once-vibrant market - just the charred skeletons of buildings

After a tour of the town in a UN armoured personnel carrier, the head of the UN mission in Sudan, Ashraf Qazi, was clearly shocked by what he had seen.

"We have been to the centre of Abyei and it doesn't exist any more," he told journalists travelling with him.

This is not fantasy, folks- but the spread of war, focusing on control of oil, and its dollars.  Nigeria is already over the brink, too, though the world pretends otherwise.

This trend is not decreasing; quite the contrary.

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Article 4; CNN: "Vallejo, California, files for bankruptcy" 

Vallejo is " Vallejo is the 9th largest city in the San Francisco Bay Area by population,the 45th in the state of California,and 189th in the U.S. by population also."  (Wikipedia)

" ...to deal with a ballooning budget deficit caused by soaring employee costs and declining tax revenue.   The San Francisco Bay-area suburb of about 120,000 residents became the largest California city to seek bankruptcy protection."  (CNN)

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Article 5; BBC: "Indonesia pushes up fuel prices" 

"The Indonesian government has raised fuel prices by nearly 30%, prompting fears of widespread unrest. ... 

The government is struggling to meet the cost of fuel subsidies as global oil prices escalate. ...In several cities it is beginning cash handouts, intended to shield around 19 million poor families from the price rises.

But our correspondent says many Indonesians are worried the price hikes will mean that basic goods and public transport will also become more expensive.

After sharp rises in the price of rice, it could push many more families towards poverty, she adds.

Millions of Indonesians currently live on less than $2 a day."

BTW, I got word yesterday that Websters Interplanetary Dictionary is about the change to definition of "powderkeg";  to: "Indonesia".

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And we could go on, of course.  If you have an appetite for constant dire news, Ilargi is wonderful; likewise Sharon.  And as you know, I indulge myself from time to time.  It's not that hard to find it these days.

Which is the actual point of this post.  Little by little, the world IS recognizing that "things" are getting really really bad-

Then next thing you know, somebody is going to suggest - gasp - DOING SOMETHING about it.

No, really, I'll bet ya.  It'll happen.  Although at the moment, the only thing the "leaders", financial and governmental, are doing, is pointing fingers, and doing "analyses", all of which show- it's not their fault.  No action.

Possibly, when Bangladesh collapses into total chaos, and 100,000,000 (one hundred million) desperate, penniless refugees stream into India and Burma/Myanmar (I'm assuming 50 million straight deaths, first) - the world in general will say - "huh; should WE do something?"

What is the first tool at hand?  Available to all governments- and unused, so far?

RATIONING.

Fuel; and food.  Both need to be rationed- today.  First within countries- and then; for the first time- internationally.  

They won't be, of course.  We need a lot more dead bodies, first.  If you're tenderhearted, I don't recommend you look at this one from CNN: "Starvation claiming Ethiopia's tiniest".  Only 120,000, or so.  Twice the numbers just killed by the Chinese earthquake- to huge international attention, with a visit from Ban Ki Moon, in person.

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Unlike my previous request for your help in raising consciousness about the role of speculation in the world food crisis (which is still there, duh)- I don't see that there is anything effective for us to do here, yet.  The world in general is not ready to see the need; though it's obvious as all hell to anyone who actually thinks about it.

So here is my question to you- who- and where- on the planet will be the first to admit that rationing is needed?  And implement it?

Will it be Bangladesh?  One could hope- but it's a country, like many, with a wildly wealthy elite, who hold the power, and vast population of the utterly destitute.

Haiti?  If it's still there.  The UN has the only real police force in Haiti.  They could do it.  They should.  Can Ban Ki Moon find the will?

Who?  Where?  What's your guess?

Pants On Fire, part 2

I could have done without the horrific confirmation of this bit, right in the middle of it. The collapse of the I-35W bridge in Minneapolis is exactly a case in point. The engineers (who speak yet a different language from scientists, believe me) said "this is not a good bridge" - and - nothing whatever was done to correct problems; until people died. We really need to address this as what it is; BAD COMMUNICATION; or NO communication; followed by systemic INDECISION. Rome, people, is falling. Just as they started stealing lead from Roman aqueducts, once nobody cared enough to stop them - now they're stealing copper - in the USA- and shutting down farms. copper theft. And the major, important, bridges fall down. And everybody says "not my fault".

It IS somebody's fault. There are two probabilities; either it fell as the result of serious incompetence- most likely multiple incompetences; or; it's that one in a million that collapsed in spite of everything being done right. Which one would you bet on?

Here's part 2; I hope to have something to add to this soon; it can use some updating.
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Of course, nefarious individuals, or in present parlance, the evildoers, could and did and do use the reported confusion to increase the inaction. Adding to the paralysis. Ustat Quo, Inc. does not really want to have to buy scrubbers for their smokestacks, in spite of the lovely full page ads about their new nature preserve.

If you are not asleep yet, I have one more layer to the onion for you; back to professional scientist training.

Science longs for “objectivity”. It is, of course, useful if you are going to get to “truth”. Science positively hankers after objectivity.

Now the philosophers of science know, as you know, and I know, that “objectivity” is a snare and a delusion. But they yearn, and strive, for it anyway.

Striving is fine, but there is a tendency for striving to become “belief”, which is an immediate disaster in sifting facts looking for truth; belief causes blindness.

It works like this: young scientists-to-be have it beaten into them that “I” has no place in science. Writing a scientific paper that starts “I went to the woods” will get you an F. Do it over. “The woods were visited” is what happened.

The goal here is to strip the blatantly unobjective “I” from the science; science must be done by objective, non-involved persons, who can see things clearly without the clouds of personality.

This is a crock, of course. All observation is done through the lenses and smogs of our own culture, our sex, our past, our training, what we ate for breakfast, and who we last talked to. Ask any anthropologist, or psychologist, priest, or advertising exec. To believe humans can be objective, I will venture to point out, is gloriously irrational.

But that is how scientists are trained, nay forced, to communicate; through an artificial scrim of admittedly pretended objectivity.

What it does, in fact, is add a layer of camouflage to any truths that may be hiding in the scientist’s writing. You come to learn this- the “publish or perish” law has generated staggering mountains of junk noninformation that must be screened for scraps of fact. One of the things you quickly learn as an apprentice scientist is to judge the person doing the writing- are they a damfool? an incompetent? plain scum? badly trained? just silly? actually psychotic? All of those are utterly possible, indeed common; figuring out who’s what helps sift the heaps of scientific disinformation; it’s probably less worth your time to be looking through the work of an idiot, charlatan, or scoundrel.

Scientists know this, and judge other scientists; carefully, even subliminally, all the time; but they don’t talk about it or admit it to outsiders. And with all the practice, they get very good at reading between the lines of pseudo-objective idiom.

When they talk to the press, they know their peers will read it, and judge it; so they are extremely careful to speak in the most precise scientific terms- and use all the pretend objectifying language at their disposal; their professional reputation can be irretrievably damaged by unprofessional utterances (like “yes”, or “no”).

The result is statements that seem cold, distant, and full of so many obfuscatory disclaimers and weasel words that any lawyer would swell with pride. If the statements were in English.

Serious scientists lay it on thicker than the BULL shouters. Most of the BULL shouters have no professional reputation left to protect (among scientists, that is; the dean is oblivious, since Dr. Billy gets lots of press)- so in fact, to the journalist’s ears, Dr. Billy sounds more forthcoming- more personable, rambunctious, and, oh, worth a little more space in the article...

All done for the sake of Truth; and all done with the best of intentions.

And as a result, we are all on a path to a very warm place.

“Truth” has not been served; nor have we, nor the wellbeing of the world.

Is this the only case where critical information has been lost in a morass of good intentions? Of course not. Immediately after the terrorist attacks of September Eleventh, a refrain heard over and over, quite sincerely made in most cases, was “No one ever imagined that such a thing could happen...”. Utterly untrue. Repeated warnings were made by knowledgeable people, extending from briefings for Congress to books published for general consumption. Warnings stating that various kinds of precautions should be taken, immediately. The true statement would be “We did not listen to the people who knew.”

So is that the only other instance? Of course not.

So, why am I telling you all this?

Sigh

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There you have the 2002 essay. Why am I telling you this? Because- I do think we can start to change all this. First step; recognize the problem. Second step- get others to see. Third step- work for new decision making processes. Now there is an iceberg that can keep you busy for the next several lifetimes.

More on that next time.