Pushing On Bergs- The Berg Moves...

One of the things about pushing on icebergs- when an iceberg you've been pushing on, hard, actually moves - and in the right direction- you're still never sure if your pushing is what moved it.

But.  Physics being what it is- it's entirely possible that without your push, it would still be sitting there.

A Berg just moved, and in the right direction.  It was a Bloomberg this time, not an iceberg- but the resemblance is actually considerable, and the Bloomberg had, in fact, been sitting immobile and unmovable for quite some time.

The basic story; the Mayor of New York City came out and endorsed Obama for re-election - because:

“Our climate is changing,” he wrote. “And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it may be — given the devastation it is wreaking — should be enough to compel all elected leaders to take immediate action.”

So; am I saying Bloomberg endorsed Obama - and climate change- because of my pushing?

I'd like to hope I'm not delusional, at least not more than other folks; (humor) but here's the thing; I WAS pushing- in exactly the right place and time- for my pushes to have added just that last bit.

Do you suppose the Mayor of New York City reads The New York Times?  To keep a handle on what his city is saying?  I would, in his shoes, I think- even though, yes, he kind of has his own news service (uh, you've heard of Bloomberg?)

If he was reading the NYT; the very first article they carried about a possible connection between Sandy and climate change - carried my blunt and rude comment (#9 out of 178, so...), and linked here, to We Told You So, which is even ruder and blunter.  Did Bloomberg read it?  We'll likely never know- but- the We Told You So post got 450 hits, the very first day - mostly from the NYT.

There are now quite a few voices saying "we told you so" - but as far as I know, they only started to speak up the next day...

And I kept pushing.  With what I intended to be readable- but tough- comments, in several places;

Here: "Warnings for Years", my comment has 58 "reader recommends"- putting it high on the list:


"Hurrah!. Thank you for the plain statement- scientists saw this coming, long ago- did their duty and warned the public about it- and nothing happened.

"Journalists, and the NYT, bear some responsibility for that lack of action- by insistently presenting these warnings as doubtful; when in fact they are as certain as the fact that the San Andreas Fault- WILL - slip again some day.

"So it's grand to see this. I'm hoping the Times as a matter of policy will start to bar climate change deniers from its pages- exactly as it now bars Holocaust deniers. Deceiving the public causes very great societal harm. You can see it today- all around you.

"For the non-scientific; there's another powerful fact here: in the practice of Science, everything is constantly doubted; even peer-reviewed "truth" always carries a 5% rating of "or, we could be wrong". (That's not supposed to cause paralysis.)

"But- in the long term testing of concepts; one of the most powerful pieces of evidence is the prediction- that comes true. Einstein's theories have been tested this way multiple times, just in the last decade- and his predictions, so far, are always correct. That's powerful evidence that he understood the universe.

"This storm, and its consequences, were predicted in detail; and it has all happened. That is, formally, a powerful piece of proof that the overarching concepts of global climate change- are correct."

Rude, huh?

Finally, ending with this one- directed to the Mayor; at which time the NYT top Science article was this horror - which has no opportunity for comment with it...  but did have big links on the front page...


"Hurrah for Bloomberg! Frankly, 3 words I did not ever expect to be coming out of my mouth- along with "This just makes Christie look like a bigger man!"

"Now- Mr. Mayor- can you put some pressure on the NYT editors to quit printing this "scientists aren't sure" malarky? Scientists ARE sure- it was predicted, in great detail, that such storms could happen, and how NYC would flood. And here we are- "proof" doesn't get any better than predictions that come true."

You know what?  That comment again got plenty of "likes"; lots of people saw it and agreed- and if you go to the NYT right now- you have to really dig to find that "scientists not sure" article; it's place at the top of everything has been given to articles on "prescient maps" and "preparing for next time."

Not only did the Bloom berg move- the NYT editorial policy seems to have moved; and there's an iceberg for sure.

My pushing?  Laughable.

Except- I did keep pushing; as hard as I could- and I was pushing at the right time, in the right place- for it just maybe maybe- to have made some difference.

It doesn't really get any better than that, when you push on an iceberg.  You'll never really know- if you made a difference.

But the fantasies are great!  And I'm going to keep pushing.  : - )

Maybe, for you - it's time to unplug.

Unplug what? Unplug - everything.

Yes, that's a drastic suggestion; but if you aren't feeling drastic today, you never will.

Nuclear power - is a thing of the past. But it's not going to die an easy death; the nuke profiteers will fight for their profits; which come, please note, never from actual profits made selling energy; but from subsidies paid by taxpayers. They fight to the death. Literally. So long as the deaths are not their own, they are already writing about how happy they are to see a few people die for their nukes. "Everything is dangerous!" they now cry; after paying expert pontificators for decades to pound home the idea that nukes are "totally safe!"

They're not; they never were, and those who said so (me, quietly, Nicole Foss with vast expertise) have been ignored (at best).

And let me say this, too - I'm of the opinion that safe nuclear power might have been a possibility, at one time. But at the outset, engineers who pushed for greater intrinsic safety were ignored because safer designs were also more expensive, up front. As recently as last week- while pushing "third generation" nuclear reactors, the industry once again chose to ignore- and ridicule- engineers pointing out safety flaws.

What's going on in Japan right now is much, much worse than the mainstream media is saying it is. That's partly because the news coming out of Japan is being specifically toned down to slow panic, and because the media feels compelled to repeat bs like "The outer building was destroyed in the explosion, and the inner concrete secondary containment vessel has collapsed - but the primary steel reactor vessel inside was not damaged, and there is no serious danger to the public at this time."

What leaks out, in dribs and drabs, are little bits of information like "we've found cesium outside"... and "US helicopter pilots flying 60 miles away were contaminated with radioactive particulate matter"...

The only way to get cesium outside is if the core of the reactor has melted, and the core is leaking incredibly hot vaporized metal into the outside world. No, it's not Chernobyl- but that really shouldn't comfort anyone. It's not Three Mile Island, either, it's vastly worse. (By far the best whole-problem analysis I've seen is from Nicole Foss, here.)

Public reaction against nuclear power is going to be huge. The push to develop nuclear anyway, will also be huge- and very powerful. In case you haven't noticed- powerful people are currently increasingly convinced they can and should ignore public wishes, "for our own good".

So. You feel you don't want any new nuclear power plants built around you? What can you do about it?

Yeah, sure; write to your Congress people. Call them. Go to the demonstrations; carry a sign. As all the public employees in Wisconsin will tell you - they're not listening much.

Something you could do- that would actually force them to pay at least a tiny bit of attention to you- is unplug. Quit using their electricity. Stop.

Yes; you could. I can tell you that with a little credibility; because I did; more than 30 years ago- and actually; for exactly this reason; nuclear power (as it exists) is an incredibly bad idea. It was the 3rd post I made on this blog. And I'm not dead, I've raised 2 children entirely this way, one of whom has moved back with his PhD in engineering to work with me, one of whom lights his house with LEDs; and am raising another.

Now; before you quit listening altogether, because 99% of you are thinking "sure, he could, but I really can't... just physically cannot." - you could actually make a difference if you just unplugged some of your "stuff".

Long ago, a very nice lady was writing on Dot Earth, Andy Revkin's blog on the NYT, and made the very common statement that "she'd really like to 'go solar', but she just couldn't afford it." Most people believe that, and repeat it so often it becomes "common knowledge", aka; "reality".

So I commented there that actually she could; anyone can; at any time. Here's how you go solar, on any budget. You go out and buy the solar system you can afford, no matter how small. Then- you only plug in the appliances that you have power for. If you don't have the power- then you can't use it. (A big part of why I have no refrigerator.) When you can afford more solar- you add it on. Then you can run more stuff. Not before. (And sure, solar is not the only game in town; just pay attention to the principle here.)

She did not, alas, go out and do as I suggested.

But just maybe- it's time for people to take that a bit more seriously.

So- if you find yourself concerned, and wanting to do something; think about actually, seriously and permanently, reducing your electricity consumption. That way; when the nuke pushers start saying "we must have them, or we will have no civilization"; they will have a little more trouble making that argument stick.

Over all electric consumption is down, in the "developed world". Most of the world has excess generating capacity, right now. But; the pushers are already pushing; claiming it's desperately essential to have more. If, however, civilized people are simply doing with less; one way or another; and general consumption fails to rise- it will be hard to make that stick.

How many electric clocks do you have in your house? How many do you actually need?

Do clocks use a lot of power? Hell, no; but they are the perfect example of our habits, which have resulted in the endless growth in demand. No, the clock uses "almost nothing"- but how many clocks that no one ever looks at do you suppose are running right now in New York City? I'd have to guess hundreds of thousands, since nice clocks, and clock radios, and an extra clock radio for the den, and the one your uncle gave you for college that is running in the baby's room- are a favorite gift, which we cheerfully give and receive and - plug in, somewhere. And never look at.

Ok; only an example of consumption that happens below our radar- and which adds up, over our 100's of millions of people; so that we probably need one whole power plant in the USA - just to run clocks no one looks at. Another example - just the "standby" features of all our gizmos are estimated to add up to 108 Billion Kilowatt-hours per year, just in the USA. If my math is right, that's more than ten 1,000 Megawatt power plants.

And how about the kids' Wii, that's never unplugged. The extra old fridge still running in the garage, that keeps fish bait and beer cool in the summer; but runs all year?

Truthfully; the easiest way to tackle the problem, if you are one who wants to, is to just unplug everything. Then plug things back in- only when you find you need them.

There's a million ways to cut your use. Put motion detectors in each room that control room lights. Etc.

And for a few. Go ahead. Unplug permanently. Go off-grid.

There are millions in Japan who just went off grid; the hard way. And millions more are cutting back; the hard way. It could go better for your household if you were making your own choices; not having them imposed by forces beyond all control.

It's a real world, after all.

Here we are, a few days on, and Gabby has been wiped off the front pages by Tunisia, which has been wiped off the front pages by Egypt.

I was proud of my blog and my readers in your responses to the last post. Thinking people, sane discussions; in spite of what is often an inflammatory topic.

Events like all of these are serving as a Rorschach blot test for our cultures. People and pundits interpret them in the light of their own interests first. I was amused at the number of columnists pointing out that the real failures in Tucson were in the health services department. Why, if only they'd had better funding, surely this poor sick man would have been helped, and all this prevented.

Which is not impossible; but what is also incandescently true is that no matter how well you fund and run any program, some human or other will slide through the remaining tiny cracks, and bad things will happen, regardless. Less often. But you cannot ever reach zero.

Surely we know this.

Then what is required of those of us who think is - some provision for the exceptions.

And what a tangled can of worms we have there. I cannot provide "answers" to the two excellent conundrums posed in the comments to the last post: "should common citizens be armed", and from Steve Salmony: "is there any hope for our species."

But I can, I think, provide a bit of useful insight.

This world of ours is what it is; and we live in it.

Discussions and opinions about what it should be are useful. But they should not be mistaken for realities waiting to pop into place.

Perspective on arming of citizens comes from Egypt, right now. Their police have been rejected by the people, declared and made illegitimate. Leaving the streets open to any and all criminals, who, be assured, were right on their toes waiting for the very first opportunity.

So far, the result in Egypt seems to be that neighbors are arming themselves with anything available, and openly showing that they will resist looters. Often these neighbor-police only have sticks to show. Often the criminal element has an illegal gun or two.

None of which is any answer to whether the situation would be improved by better gun control, or everyone being armed. It's just worth knowing; seeing; you could find yourself in this situation; anywhere in the world.

That's reality.

And it's not easy to come up with pat answers and positions. I'm on the fence myself. We own guns, being way out in the country, and using them for hunting sometimes. At the same time, I think there is some point to trying to decrease the number of guns floating around in cities; and I am fiercely opposed to the idiotic new ruling here in the US allowing people to carry concealed weapons in our National Parks. The Park reality includes the fact that they do have a highly trusted police, who can keep those places as safe as the world is ever likely to be anywhere. We should keep it that way. (rant, rant.)

All of this, and similar stuff, adds up to a response to your question, Steve- likely the only one you'll ever be able to find.

Does our so-promising species have any chance at a future?

Reality:

There are quite a few of us species members who are going to fight for some kind of future, until we die, no matter what.

We already are.

The real world sucks. It always has; read Charles Dickens if you doubt it.

Incredibly bad things happen. Horrors happen. More of them are ahead of us.

But in all the past horrors, some of our species have struggled to make things better, just a little, whenever possible.

It can be crippling to look at our real world and bemoan what it is not. We could be so much more; so much better. You can freeze yourself into immobile depression by contemplating too long what we don't do.

Better, I think, to just keep in mind: It's a Real, Real, World.

One good response that can help keep you sane; find your iceberg, and push on it.

I paid too much.

  I'm kinda afraid to say "I'm back!" - but; I may be back.  We'll see.  I am back from my trip, and it was a tremendously productive and useful one, the kind that leaves your head spinning with new possibilities, and solutions to old problems, and lots of energy...

  After which, you arrive home to reality, and while it's wonderful; that damned pot hole in the driveway still needs to be fixed...

  And so it goes.  As St. Vonnegut put it repeatedly.  Anyway; an actual post:

  Two days ago, I paid too much for an antique.  On purpose.

  The "antique" is a hand-cranked feed grinder; for turning whole corn etc. into chicken feed.  It's small scale agriculture; but from the day when people bought such things expecting them to work without breaking, for a lifetime; to serve their own needs fully, and well.

  I've needed one for a year, and have been suffering mentally from the fact that before I had any poultry I saw one, languishing in an antique mall, asking to be taken home for a very measly $35; a great 40 lb chunk of cast iron from another era.  Nobody was buying, obviously; it's a heavy working machine, and doesn't transform well into a tchotchke.  I'd admired the beautiful design and utility of it, and passed on; and kicked myself constantly for not buying it, all the days after.

  Once I needed one, they vanished from the antique malls of course.  I looked, asked, drove to see the other dealer across town, etc, for several years, with no luck.  Most dealers knew what it was I was talking about, and had seen them; but were also aware that the market for them was nearly non-existent.

  On my way driving home, I stopped for a break in the small town where I went to high school; a place to which I retain very few ties.  Walked past our old house, noticed that the tuck pointing I'd done on the front stairs was holding up fine, but that whatever I hadn't repaired then was now in desperate need.  And finding a couple of antique stores, looked in mostly out of community curiosity, not real hope.  They always ask; "Looking for anything special?"  And I always answer, as a way to open communication, and ease the situation dynamics.  "Yeah, I'm looking for a... "  and the hands start flailing about to express dimensions and actions.

  "Nope.  But the other store back up town might- they've got a basement."  Ok.  Trudge.  "Oh, I really don't know.  I have two dealers who might; let's see - "  and hailing one who happened to be in, relayed my request.  "Well.  Maybe."

  Let's look.  And there, behold, is my feed grinder.  Cleaned up to an insane degree, and painted fire engine red in hopes of achieving tchotchke-hood, but there it is; massive cast iron, with enough wear on the iron teeth to prove a long and useful career already achieved; with another hundred years left in it.

  There's the tag.  Flip it over.  $145.00.

  Now- the lady, who inadvertently had blurted "you know, we thought that's what it was!" and thus revealed her position of inferior knowledge, was looking at me very hopefully, as I looked up from the tag.  There wasn't any doubt in my mind that if I'd played the game, she'd have cheerfully taken $100; or maybe a lot less- ("man, the last one I saw was a lot better, and they were only asking $35!") but instead, I gave her a full-smile, put out my hand, and said "Done!"

  And I was actually aware of what I was doing.  I was willing to pay the exorbitant price for two reasons.  One; pure celebratory joy that I'd succeeded in this long search, and I can now grind my own stuff to feed the guineas and chickens; and Two -

  Two is more complicated.  This was a piece of pretty important machinery to me; and similar bits of old technology exist in many corners of antique stores, attics, basements and barns.  Most of these old tools wind up thrown away.  "Nobody wants that junk anymore; it's just scrap."

  A bunch of the tools I used to build this house came out of antique stores; and the need for these simpler machines is increasing, not decreasing.

  I paid the price cheerfully - to encourage, forcefully, this lady and her antique dealer friends to preserve the old tools when they find them; and make them available to those of us who recognize and want them.  I didn't tell her that.

  I doubt that extra $45 will ever find its way back to me, in karmic payoff.  But.  It was my contribution, for the day, to the direction of human enterprise.  Hopefully, it will help a few others find what they need, down the road.

  A little shove on the iceberg.

Seven cent cotton; perspective

In case you haven't noticed, the "doomer" point of view has gone global, and is taking over the mainstream headlines.  Even La Crinchy has gone doomer today.

It's depressing.  :-)

Delighted as I am to have more people taking the future seriously, and actually doing some worrying about it- I also see some danger in burgeoning hopelessness.

I'm not without hope; and I've been seeing, talking about, and working on - exactly this horrifying future- for decades.  And living as if it all actually mattered.

Hopelessness is just not useful, though.  And pointless.  You dead, yet?  Well, then.

Something to keep firmly in mind - your ancestors survived bad times- yes, as bad as any coming.  Keep your wits about you- and your chances are fine.

A little example here- a song of hopelessness, which I first heard from Pete Seeger.  I like this version, a lot.  But notice- it's a song.  Hopeless - but still singing about it.  Hm.



Lew Dite with his "The Gibson" metal head banjo uke. A song Pete Seeger taught me to love. copyrighted by Bob Miller and Emma Dermer in 1929. Song was on Seeger's "American Industrial Ballads" album.

Much of the stuff in this song is exactly what folks are fearing for their future right now.  It was the reality for your grandparents and great grandparents- they lived it.  Suffered it.

And survived it; and sang about it- and raised their children, which is why you're here today.

So.  Take it all with that critical grain of salt.

Walking an Icy Path

This is a guest post by Spice, not the addition to the Shed parable (that's still coming).  This morning, in 3 minutes, she told me several nice stories about her shopping trip the day before.  Seemed relevant- so I said "you should write that up, I'll put it on the blog."  6 hours later...

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Parking lots in the winter are minefields. Most of the time they’re relatively safe, with just the soot blackened slush that soaks the bottom of your jeans to worry about. It’s not a problem to hang your pants above the wood stove, listening to the drip and sizzle as the ice thaws and drops onto the the stove top. You prop your feet on the open oven door, cup of cocoa warming your hands, until the red spots on the bottoms of your calves warm up from the “frozen so cold that it burns” to a nice toasty pink.

You also have to worry a bit about the people driving too fast. You watch them with a weather eye, mentally shaking your head at their stupidity. Do they think they’re in the Indy 500 as they whip around the last car in line, or cut through a diagonal space to troll up the lane the wrong way? You send them a mental “go kill yourself away from me” and continue with your life.

However there are those rare winter days when walking from your parking space to the wooshing doors of a store is literally playing dice with fate.  

Yesterday was just such a day. We had two days in the 30’s and 40’s F and then it dropped to -10 F (ten below). Everything melted, then froze in a sheet of ice.

December here is usually mild as winter goes. Average temperature usually hangs around 20 F.  People who have never been here in the winter have images of a frozen wasteland where your eyeballs freeze in their sockets and every breath feels like knives in your throat.  That’s January (historical average temp of 4°below)... And February... sometimes March.

December snow is fluffy flakes that stick to your eyelashes and make you want to laugh out loud. Some nights Jack Frost is a busy boy, painting the trees with hoarfrost, so when the sun shines in an icy blue sky, for just a few moments you live in an enchanted forest and wouldn’t be surprised to see mythical creatures moving like shadows among the trees. Eat your heart out Currier and Ives.

With the “financial crisis” right now Greenpa and I have cut trips to the City to bare bones. It’s about fifty miles away, which means a day-long trip. We used to get there once a month to stock up on items we couldn’t get as easilly or cheaply locally. Now there has to be a major incentive to go that far. More so after the Sam’s Incident. A 99 cent day at Savers is such an incentive, especially when you have a 3 year-old (oops a 3 and 3/4 year old thank you very much!).

As I was getting out of the car, ready to tackle the shopping madness, I watched the march of shoppers. A march that was more like the waddle, slide of penguins than the usual purposeful stride. They gingerly held on to luggage racks and car fenders as they eased from the sheeted ice to the narrow lines of safety dug by snow tires.

I opened the car door and sat sideways on the seat so I could slip my YakTrax onto my boots. I buttoned up my coat, pulled a snow cap over my ears and slipped on my cow hide gloves with their faux lamb’s wool lining. I was off, trudging safely across the uneven ice.

I noticed a woman. With her red hat pulled low over her nordic blonde hair and a matching red scarf and man’s coat, she was a spot of color in the grey. Her belly bulged under the coat in those last weeks of pregnancy that make women, even ones who never had children, wince in sympathy and men feel the cold sweat of nerves on their spines. In one hand, she clutched the pink, sparkly mitten of a blonde girl not much older than Smidgen. The other gripped the fender of a station wagon.

“Do you need help?” I asked. “I’m not going to fall, and I can get you to the door.”
I proudly showed her my YakTrax.

“Thank you. I slipped in the Sam’s lot the other day and was scared to death of hurting the baby.” She answered, breathlessly.

“No problem. I’ve been there too.” I wrapped an arm around her waist and took her daughter’s hand in mine and we walked safely into Savers.  I slipped off the Trax inside the store, warning her that they will slip on linoleum.

She asked me if I could wait for her and help her back to her to her car after we were done shopping. I said sure, that it wouldn’t be a problem.

As I was leading her out across the lot I told her about Yak Trax and that she could pick up a simpler pair for street use for $20 at the outdoor store.   We’ve used them for several years and they’re tons better than anything else on the market.

“That’ll be my next stop,” she answered happily.

I stowed my bags and went into the dollar store next door to Savers, where the cashiers and some customers had noticed us through the plate-glass windows.

“A friend of yours?” The cashier asked.

She was a lovely woman with the blue-black skin of deep Africa and the speech patterns of Chicago. Her hair was woven into tight corn-rows with tiny bells at the ends, tinkling merrily.

“Nope. A complete stranger.” I smiled. “I didn’t want her to slip.”

She looked at me strangely as I slipped the Trax off my shoes again.

I picked up the few things Smidgeon needed for a school Christmas (We’re too rural to worry about PC) project and a toy for her gift exchange. And walked over to the cashier.

 Bells In Her Hair smiled at me as she started to ring up my purchase.

“I’m freezing,” she said cheerfully. It's a typical northern conversation starter.

I looked at her thin poly-cotton slacks and pullover. “Layers work miracles.”

“Whaddya mean?”

I was a little surprised at the question. It may be naive, but I was pretty sure layers had been pounded into the heads of every child born north of the Mason-Dixon line since the land bridge.  

“Do you have longies on?” I asked.

“No.”

“You can get a good pair at the farm store.”

“I don’t have a car.”

“Oh. I’m pretty sure the bus goes out there. If not get a friend to take you, it’s important to stay warm.”

By this time most of the people in my line and the line next to us were listening to our conversation.

“Why do you have to stay warm?” Asked a woman with styled grey hair and a gorgeous London Fog coat that looked about as warm as a, let’s face it, a rain coat.

I was surprised once again. “Didn’t you ever hear about layering before you leave so you can retain heat? You put on thermals, two pairs of socks, thick jeans, a pull over and a sweater. It’s easier to stay warm than it is to get warm.”

Almost everyone listening shook their heads no. I was flabbergasted. Didn’t they know how to take care of themselves in cold weather? These are adults here.

“Well you lose 10% of your body heat from each of your head, hands and feet. So I’m wearing a cap, got some gloves and have two pairs of socks on. Plus I don’t take my coat off inside even if it’s seventy, because I know I’m going back out. I also run my house cooler than normal. Preserve heat with clothes and winter’s a breeze.”

“I’ve never heard that,” she admitted.

I was almost checked out, so I pulled my Trax out of my pocket and slipped them on my shoes.

“What are them things?” the cashier asked.

“YakTrax. They're like chains for your feet. So you don’t slip.”

“Really. I’ve never seen such a thing. I was walkin’ home the other day and was so cold and slipped so much that I called a cab.”

“Well there’s no cabs on a farm, so I’ve gotta know how to stay warm and in one piece,” I said with a laugh. “You can get these at the outdoor store.”

I pulled my gloves out of my pocket, and the London Fog lady goggled.
“Those are huge,” she breathed.

“And warm,” I answered cheerfully. “You can find them at the farm store. It’s worth the price not to have icicles instead of fingers. Farmers seem to know how chuck style for warmth.”

After getting geared back up, I took my bag and trudged back out to the car. As I was backing out, I saw London Fog get into her nice Mercedes with heated seats. She had no gloves on her hands.

She, and the other people I spoke to really started my brain whirling. Why didn’t they know how to stay warm? Has the knowledge really been lost? Every year people complain about the cold. They belly ache, but seem to feel smug and superior when talking to someone from another place and can drop “it got to -10 last night” into the conversation.

I know that many city dwellers go from a heated house to a heated garage, where their car is already warmed up. They spend a few minutes between buildings and cars facing the bite of winter and then are in blessed warmth again. But what happens when they need warmth and have no idea how to get it?

Have we really lost skills that are so vital for five months out of every year? In the current economic climate these skills are going to be more and more important as people choose to heat their house and feed their family instead of buying a car with heated seats or heating their garage.

Trust me Smidgen the aspiring nudist hears... Put on your mittens, hat, coat, snow pants, boots, sweater, etc on... You need to stay warm... Where are your slippers?... In stereo every day from Greenpa and myself.  And once a day- why.

Later I saw the Mercedes in the farm store parking lot. It made me smile.

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Greenpa: ok, full disclosure, we do NOT own stock in YakTrax.  But I/we really do recommend them for frozen snow and ice- they're life savers, and vastly superior to the 4 or 5 other "shoe-chain" type things I've tried over the centuries.

One other point I wanted to make here- in fact, Spice passed on a lot of good information- to a bunch of people who needed and appreciated it- in a painless fashion; just by living it.

The Future of The World... Illustrated.

Today and recently the blogosphere is dripping with blog producers and blog consumers lathering about - The Future.  And if there is one.

This is entirely understandable, and believe me, I'm not smirking at all those silly people.

We are, indeed, standing on the edge of the cliff here.  Read Sharon; read Ilargi and Stoneleigh.  

The thing is, I've known this for a long long time.  I do believe in physics, I do, I do.  And if you do- this collapse of industrial insanity has been inevitable for a very long time.

But how, forsooth, to explain that?  Lucidly, and convincingly, to folks who have not spent decades looking and listening, and studying.  What we are all taught, growing up, is that "progress" is glorious, inevitable, and endless- and good.  They pound that in hard.  It's not easy getting folks to the point where they can see it's a dogma based on fallacies and illusions.  And it's not fun. 

Luckily for us, California has produced several years of completely clear data.  It isn't necessary for you to understand "the science of economics" (ROTFL!); or physics, or the chemistry of global warming.  You just need 4th grade arithmatic.

California is burning, yes?  Badly.  Happened last year; and the year before.  And what are they doing about it all?

Not planning, that's for sure.  Here it is: the reaction to the entire state burning down- the reaction of the wealthiest, most forward looking people on the planet.

Cost of firefighting in California; by year:

Can you say "impotent"?

The fact is; our world governments are all in this state at the moment; utterly unable to cope with reality.  The various forces at work are able, time and again, to prevent action.

Manifestly- California needs to agree- fires are more costly than they used to be; we must budget more for dealing with them.

Manifestly- the state of California has failed to do anything about the problem, year after year.

Reality, physics, will prevail; every time.  Which is why California is on fire again.

Another litany of years of inaction is here; NYT: Asleep At The Spigot.

This is perhaps the largest problem I see for humanity at the moment- regardless of how or why we got here- our joint decision making processes are universally paralyzed.

Yes?

Universally paralyzed.

Pick a disaster; any disaster- as the pundits are sifting through the rubble, you will find this phrase, over and over: "repeated warnings were ignored..."

How we got here; why; and what happens next- is tome material; cannot be crammed into a blog.

What do you need to do about this?  Realize- you're on your own.

Technology will not save us.  Because any truly revolutionary technology will be fought tooth and nail; and subverted, and co-opted; by the same forces that have paralyzed our states.

Policy will not save us.  Ditto.  They'll be holding policy discussions at our funerals.

What might save us is- us.

Communities, working to stick together, and face realities.  

The best initiative I know of there is Rob Hopkins' "Transition Towns" - 

Tons more on his website; and in video/audio.  

There's hope there; if you're willing to roll up your sleeves.

just can't help myself

It finally got to me.  I have NO time for this, but I just can't stop myself.

The Stock Market- the "financial sector" - is entirely populated with absolute idiots.

And, just for fun; most of them are certifiable gambling addicts, to boot.  Self-deluding, in the extreme.

Two stories, running simultaneously in the New York Times, right now; prove this beautifully.

Story 1; "Oil and Food Push Prices Higher".  

Gasoline prices rose 5.2 percent in May and were up 21 percent compared with a year ago, according to the report, released by the Labor Department on Friday. On an annual basis, inflation ran at 4.2 percent compared to May 2007. The rise in the index was slightly more than economists had forecast.

Food prices rose again in May as Americans paid 5 percent more for foods and beverages than a year ago.

... Minus the cost of food and gasoline, inflation was 0.2 percent for the month.

Ok, got that?

Story 2; "Stocks Up After Inflation Data."  This is the entire story, here; a note;

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street is extending its gains in early trading after a pair of economic reports point to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates stable when it meets later this month. The Labor Department's report on core inflation, which measures price increases but strips out volatile food and energy costs, met investor expectations.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for June has fallen to 56.7 from 59.8 last month. The market had expected the reading would remain unchanged.

Taken together the reports seem to make the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, rather than raising them, when it meets June 24-25.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up about 124 at the 12,266 level.

Oh.  My.  God.

So- the market is ignoring the real inflation rate- by stripping out food and energy.  Why?  Because they want to, is why.  It makes them feel better.  And they're ignoring the fact that their pundits thought wrong on consumer "sentiment" (otherwise known as "consumer confidence", a measure of how willing consumers are to believe in the future, and spend money).  

Pundits right?  Yay!  Pundits wrong?  Yay!

My jaw is just dropped, right on the floor, at how anyone can claim, with a straight face, that these morons know what they're doing.

The only possible action from a responsible government would be to move in with troops, and lock 100% of the inhabitants of the "financial sector" in a loony bin.  Or maybe Guantanamo?  They're about to go out of business there, I understand.  We could consider it a Federal employment Initiative; keep that facility working.

--------------------------------------------------------

On the good side: also in the NYT right now: Speculators Become Targets.

Legislators are aware that constituents are angry about speculators driving up food prices (and fuel prices).  And they're starting to call, seriously, for action.

Did your emails and calls a couple weeks ago have anything to do with that?

YOU BET THEY DID!!!  I guarantee it.  It's quite possible that your email was the first one that staffer read, and they kind of blew it off.  But then they got another one.  And another.  Hey, it's a trend.  And the talk started- and here is a nice fat article in the NYT- and rising awareness.

Thanks, guys, and congratulations.

Grinning While Rome Burns

Ah, the rewards of living a good honest life!  This, apparently, is what our world thinks is a "worth while" "job"-  conducting incomprehensible hocus-pocus with huge piles of money.  The benefits to the world are obvious of course- an improved standard of living, all around.

We DON'T have to put up with this, you know.  The laws could be changed.  In fact, it's time to OUTLAW the trading of food- and energy - for profit alone.  Just as it is obviously obscene to think about "holding" chemotherapy drugs for profit- it's JUST as obscene to hold FOOD- for profit.  And oil, at this point- people are dying- now for the lack of basic food and energy.  No, they don't starve- it's violence, first.

The big money managers are all a-flutter as to what to DO about starving millions- "oh, what can we do?!" they cry (see previous 3 posts).

NOT ONE of them, so far, has suggested CLOSING markets to speculators.  Would it be difficult?  Duh.  Could it be DONE?  

yes.

Start now.  Get the colleges riled up about it- START TALKING about it; CALL your legislator and RANT about the PURE OBSCENITY of "food profiteers" - and tell them you want hearings- and legislation - on how much of the increase in the price of food, and oil, is purely due to "speculation".

Start it moving.

----------------------------------------------

Ask yourself.  Is it possible to truly "earn" - $3.7 Billion in a year?    From that article: "Combined, the top 50 hedge fund managers last year earned $29 billion." Personally, my answer is no, that's not "earning".  There's another word.  And golly, the World Bank can afford all of $10 million for the starving in Haiti.  

And- WHERE did that money come from?  It has to come from  somewhere.

Really?  Truly?  Ultimately it comes from all those like the people in Bangladesh - who last year were spending 40¢ a day on food - out of the $1 a day they have; and this year are spending 80¢ a day- on their one meal.  Out of the 90¢ a day they have.

OBSCENE.

So, today- crude oil hits a new record high; over $115- and the Dow closes UP 256 points?  Can you spell "totally clueless?"

Sorry, DC, I'm still really really pissed.  But I'm enjoying it, anyway.

Resurfacing

If you'll allow me to continue the conceit- when you're pushing on icebergs like that- over 4' of open water- when something changes (like the iceberg moving a tad) you're quite likely to- lose your "grip" (if you can ever HAVE a "grip" on an iceberg) - and slip - and fall into the water.

Not necessarily a disaster, but it takes time to climb out.  What I was doing was some intensive people stuff for 2 days, and I do mean intensive.  When it was over, I slept, essentially straight, for 56 hours.  That's tired.

Climbing back out of the icewater now, but it's slow.  Scanning the headlines and trends, there's loads of bad news to crow about still, and that's getting depressing.  So I want to point you instead to a lovely example of how to do "it" right.  This is a well written article, too- Irish town - and points out beautifully what even mainstream people are slowly coming to realize: we're unbelievably wasteful- and if we can just cut out the waste, we quickly discover we don't NEED nearly the energy we're already consuming.

In Defense of Excellence

Sometimes, when the universe presents me with a confluence of concepts, I am unable to resist responding.  Hopefully this post won't suck too much time out of my life- or yours.

This morning, La Crunch posted a guide to a greener Valentine's Day- which included a suggestion that rather than go out to a fancy restaurant and CONSUME, you might stay home and celebrate there.

My response basically pointed out that restaurants have to make a living, too- and they're in some trouble at the moment, as lots of folks cut back.  (And, full disclosure- I make part of my living selling fancy food to fancy restaurants...)

Then, cosmic synchronicity-wise, Frank Bruni, the NYT food writer, has an article entitled "In Defense of Decadence" - and opens, bless him, with Michael Pollan's brilliant distillation "Eat food.  Not too much.  Mostly plants."  Then goes on to describe an eating experience on the other end of the spectrum.

I doubt that Pollan intended for us to abandon fine cuisine, and genius chefs and restaurateurs.  Besides the value of occasionally cutting loose in celebration, there is another side to this problem, one we need to remember.

I did not discover that food could be ASTONISHING until I was 19, I think.  My epiphany came in Munich, Germany- in the form of Ochsenschwanz Suppe.  Ox-tail soup.

I ordered it because I'd heard of ox-tail soup for years, it sounded weird and exotic to me, and I was in the exploratory mode that summer- try whatever shows up, if it doesn't look dangerous.

One spoonful did it.

I was astonished.  I'd never, in my life, realized  or imagined  that soup- or food- could be such an intense, gripping, focused, DELICIOUS, amazing-  experience.  

Soup, for crying out loud.  It's soup- and I'm sitting here paralyzed.

My mother was a good cook; very good, and very conscientious.  Every meal she cooked, she thought about, worked on; it was part of her work, her contribution.

Inevitably, though; cooking day in, day out, for the same audience, her efforts usually ended up reaching for - "good", and "ok".   And those of us on the receiving end of her generosity surely did not pay enough attention to it.

The effort required to strive for astonishing excellence was usually just beyond her reach.  One place she did spend the effort was on birthday cakes- she could have gone pro.

So.  Why are so many of us willing to just constantly stuff our faces with MacDonald's burgers and fries?  And put up with all the consequences?

I think a big part of the answer is WE JUST DON'T KNOW ANY BETTER.

I didn't- until that spoonful of ox-tail soup.  I just plain didn't know what was possible.

Teaching children, at a young age, to pay attention to the quality of their food- just might be one of the most important things we could do to move the world in a sustainable direction.

And it takes excellence to break through the vast mountains of salty-crunchy-sweet-cheesy-chocolate-grease they are used to.  Mom is either tired most days- or feeds them packaged stuff to save time.  Sad, but very common.

I've had fantasies for several years of 4th Grade field trips.  The school bus takes a load of kids to the Farmers Market- they get to taste a fresh apple; fantastic cheese- then they go to the nearby 4 Star restaurant, where the top chef does his absolute best for them, for lunch; and their lives are changed.  Now- they KNOW- what food is; and can be.

And cooks and chefs capable of excellence need somewhere to live, and grow.  Their habitat is fine restaurants.  And WE are the only ones who can prevent their extinction.

Somewhere- we need places where we can learn, and be reminded, of what is possible.

:-)

Eat food.  Not too much.  Mostly plants.  And splurge, occasionally.

My own opinion.

The Iceberg moves again... and...

This is a "good news, bad news" post.  Life is like that, it seems sometimes, one long illustration of "the bad news is, he fell out of the airplane... good news is, he landed on a haystack... bad news is, there was a pitchfork in the haystack..."

The good news is,  the BBC posted the truly startling, and encouraging, results of a large multinational poll today - "4 out of 5" people believe humans will need to significantly alter their lifestyles in order to cope with climate change- and they're ready to do their part.

21 Countries.

More than 80% in China, and more than 75% in the USA.  Those are pretty big numbers- the iceberg IS moving, and in the right direction.  And I positively guarantee you- YOUR ACTIONS have been a huge part of making this happen. 

 "Yeah, I know it sounds crazy, but my neighbor Bill is worried enough that he's started biking to work."   Etc.  Those are the tiny little pushes that actually get folks to pay attention- and think- and change their minds.  Add it all up - our individual actions are powerful.

The bad news is, the Little Blog did finally attract a "troll", and I did finally delete ONE comment for just being, well, sub-human.  As Hank pointed out, feeding trolls makes them come back, and I accidentally fed one in the comments on the last post - "Anonymous" (#2).  I put his first comment up (and will leave it), not recognizing him as a troll- though Hank did.  He was sly- he sounds reasonable, conversational- but ultimately it was just a cranky dig.  The one I deleted was more obvious, and pointless.

Partly I put it up because I am acutely aware of the dangers of just talking to ourselves.  If we all agree, all the time- something is wrong.  And I have no problem with honest, polite disagreement, as I hope I've shown.

The good news is- that troll, who ended his comment with a smug "I know I have no intention of reducing my consumption." - was pretty immediately put in his place by this BBC poll.  Troll- you're in the minority now.  Right around the world.  And yes, you have my pity.  :-)

Then; the bad news is... we seem to be running a streak of crummy luck, if you believe in such things.  Besides having our mowers flooded, truck stolen, solar panels fried by lightning, having my back go out, and getting our mailbox bashed; a week ago Spice was in a car accident.  The other vehicle failed to yield, at a rather poorly set up intersection of rural gravel roads...  and she wound up in the ditch, windshield smashed.  It was a side impact, so the airbags didn't go off- so.. according to MRI scans a couple days ago, she does indeed have "whiplash" injuries; torn ligaments in her neck and shoulder.  Smidgen was in the car- strapped into her car seat, in the back, and is fine, with a little bruising from the straps.

So that's part of why I've been a little short on entries here- we're going to have to take some time off, from everything, so Spice can heal.  No cheating- she's got to rest, much of it in bed, no stress on the ligaments.  Which means I get to carry the wood; and the water; and do most of the cooking, and dishes.  And a lot of Smidgen herding.

And, related good news...  Part of today's breakfast conversation with the Smidge-  "You're my daddy."  "Yes, I am.  And you're my... monkey."  "Yes, I am."  (with no smiles, or joking.)  "And sometimes you're my Tigger."  "Yes, I am."  (no smiles again.)

And she is.  One of her recent inventions is to bounce all the way across the room, Tigger style, then grab a parent, and squeal "Tigger-mamma!"  then immediately bounce to the other parent and proclaim "Tigger-daddy!" - then... repeat, until the parents can't take any more.  And with Spice in a neck-brace...  

sigh.

The iceberg is moving-

As everyone in the green community knows, we are constantly concerned with the question "do we make any difference?"

Way back in June, I posted a chunk of my own belief and philosophy -Pushing on Icebergs.

Today, the BBC has an article that should keep our faith up for a long, long time.  In a pretty extensive poll, across 21 nations- it turns out that the great majority (average 79%!!!) of people now believe global warming is real, caused by humans, and needs to be dealt with urgently.

The iceberg is moving.

Folks, the numbers they cite are huge; and most importantly, a huge change.

We need to savor this, very carefully.  It's a lesson we're still going to need to recall in the years ahead; that iceberg is moving- but where?  And who's pushing on it now?  Not everyone is pushing in the same direction, that's for sure.

Part of what made the iceberg move was purely the personal commitments of those doing the pushing.  While there are many many times when we leave discussions feeling futile- when you are honest and sincere- and quietly persistent- you DO leave those in the audience with a positive impression.  And little by little- their minds do change.

It's really not enough to just read about all this climate stuff in the newspapers, or see it on tv - the skeptics have to see for themselves that there are serious people - people they know- who believe in it.  That's you and me.

Next- the politicians.  Tricky- in all possible meanings.  But, as we've seen in the last months, the politicians DO follow the public trends, they have to.

And yes, we, you, all of us - are changing the way the public- the world- thinks.

Congratulations!

Next trick- don't get cocky.  It doesn't sell well, and it makes for stupid decisions...

Now, everybody get back to work, there's more to do.  

:-)

Getting Them Involved

I started answering Caroline's very nice comment on the previous post; it got longer; and longer- so I finally realized it would be best dealt with here.

She said; "I don't know how we're going to teach our kids to see those limits other than by living in a way that shows sensitivity to the fact that there isn't infinite amounts of anything."

Teach the kids. That's absolutely one of the most important things we need to focus on. There's an awful lot of older folks who will never learn; never understand, never change. It's the kids.

And thinking about "how", and how this can relate to the real world (ie. NOT little houses in the woods, but Little Tiny Apartments In The Incredibly Huge City) - I found myself starting to tell this story. It does turn out relevant, I think.

Aeons ago, my son Beelar was asked as a school exercise to "write down your favorite food recipe". This had to be 3rd grade, I think. An assignment teaching both handwriting, and the beginnings of composition, and story telling.

We got called in to talk to the Principal about it. No, really- the teachers were in an uproar about his recipe/essay.

Man, I wish I had a copy of it- but it happened back before computers. Paper disappears; if it's in the computer, I can find it.

He chose "Spaghetti" as his recipe. Ok, how weird can that be? Then he started off: "First, you plant the tomatoes..."

You have to understand, he was UTTERLY serious; not a bit of smart mouth going on. This was his answer- this is how you make spaghetti.

The part that really freaked the teachers out though, was when he got to "Then, you add some ground Bambi..."

Ok, now THAT was smartmouthing; he knew that "regular folks" don't talk about ground venison that way. But WE did. Not in any attempt to be callous- we still loved the lovable parts of the movie; and deer- but in an attempt to be HONEST about what we were doing. We're eating deer. Right here, in the spaghetti; not hiding the fact from the kids. You have to shoot the deer- and gut it, and butcher it, and store it- to get this. All wrapped up in that wiseacre "ground Bambi".

The teachers really didn't know what to make of this; was our child being warped? Abused? What the heck?

We managed to convince them the boy was not in danger; and not really warped- just with a different viewpoint; but it took some fancy dancing, and put us on the FBI's permanent "Watch" list, I think.

He KNEW what goes into spaghetti. You plant tomatoes; and weed them; and can them; and you kill animals; and butcher them. He knew because he'd seen it; and helped do it. I really don't think he can see a can of tomatoes on the shelf at Walmart without seeing also.... the tomato plant- in Florida- the can, on a truck... etc. Likewise with the package of hamburger.

He knows.

How is this relevant to the City? I'm not suggesting you should go out and shoot pigeons, or squirrels, for your soup- just a bit impractical, never mind the legalities.

But even in the City- you have a windowsill. It can grow SOME of what goes in to your food. One pepper plant? One tomato plant? A pot of sage, thyme, oregano- chives?

Each child can have their own- it's their job to care for it, water it, grow it, harvest it- add it to the ... pizza. You can have a special meal where most of ingredients come from the window; and the family shares- harvest; cooking, sharing.

They'll start to get the idea. Wow; just growing the peppers was a LOT of work. Hm... You can nudge them into understanding a little more.

Of course, in the burbs, it's easier. 10 tomato plants- and canning the crop. You DON'T have to do industrial quantities. What you DO want to do is get the kids INVOLVED - on a comfortable level. Actually, my own father having grown up on a truck farm, he always planted vast food gardens, and dragooned the kids into "working" in them. I hated it. He was astonished when I started planting my own; me too. I think it's possible to get kids involved without making it into something to be avoided.

This kind of thing can be done in school, too; get the 4th grade to grow their own spaghetti/pizza/soup. (I think we can let them buy the pasta, or flour, don't you? Maybe the High School kids can mill their own flour...)

It's an old situation; and an old answer. Look in Laura Ingalls Wilder's book "Farmer Boy". Chapter 16, "Independence Day". Almanzo asks his father for a nickel (5¢) - because the other boys dare him to- they don't think his father will, since boys rarely had money at all. His father is talking to an adult friend- they're amazed at this forward child. "What for?" his father says. Almanzo stutters out a story about needing to buy lemonade... Father is not dumb, and sees more of what's really going on. He pulls out - not a nickel; but a half dollar; 50¢; ten times as much. Then he makes Almanzo answer a long series of questions- for the benefit of the adult friend. "You know how to grow potatoes, son? What do you do first?" Almanzo knows; he's been helping grow potatoes since forever, and he actually loves it. It takes all year- including storage, selecting/preparing the seed; plowing, planting, weeding, digging, sorting, hauling, back to storing- the selling- and what is a bushel of potatoes worth? Hauled in to town? Half a dollar. Father gives Almanzo the entire 50¢, to do with as he likes. As long as he understands- all the work, the whole year long, that went into a bushel of potatoes, is in that half dollar.

Almanzo gets it.

But only because- he knows what good work is; and what it's worth.

There is a connection between understanding work, and understanding limits. If what you have is the result of your own work- it IS limited. You can't work to an infinite extent- it will kill you to try. Eventually the connection comes- no one else can work "infinitely" either. Everything has limits- you can know this in your bones.

But not if all you've ever done is plug in a toy.

We CAN give that comprehension to our kids; but in this world, you have to make the effort to give it to them. Otherwise, it's TV and video. And if you haven't seen No Impact Man's post today, that's where you should go next, because he clearly "gets it."