Showing posts with label global warming estimatesgo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global warming estimatesgo. Show all posts

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Thinking is good. Numbers are good.

I'm seriously jammed for time in my other life right now; luckily there are two excellent quickies available for me.

One - readers will know that I sometimes toss out calculations for someone to do- someone did! In a very early post I asked someone to just quickly figure out how much gasoline is used, worldwide, just to run the airconditioners in the car- every day.

Brian West did take a quick run just today- outstanding! Do please take a look at the original post and his comment # 2; Unthinkable.

The number he gets is pretty scary- actually, there were 2 factors he left out (understandable in quick/dirty first tries) that would make a pretty large difference- that's the number of cars that actually HAVE airconditioning; and, the percentage of time the airconditioners are actually running. I think that would make a big difference it the final number.

Here's his calculation:

"Using some Very Rough assumptions:

cars worldwide = 600,000,000

average daily car mileage = 40m

average car fuel consumption = 27.5mpg

average increase in fuel consumption when using air con = 7.5% (the figures I found varied from 2%-18%)


...656, 250, 000 gallons


or for us more metric antipodeans, that's 2, 483, 906, 250 litres, or enough fuel for quite a road trip.."

THAT'S PER DAY.

Now- I DO think that's going to turn out high- there are a lot of cars out there without a/c, or with a/c that doesn't work. At this point it's a wild guess- but let's guess it's only 1/5 of the cars out there that have working AC - that would make it a mere 131 Million gallons/day.

Then, too- nobody runs their AC all the time; but then there are some that DO - like everyone in TX, FL, AZ - so let's say half again. That gets us to a mere 65 Million gallons/day.

Or - 23 BILLION gallons/year. And that estimate is brutally short of Brian's original - which would be 237 billion... ??

boy, that seems pretty high.... Something else we're missing, so we can do a quick check on whether these numbers make any sense at all - what's the stated dail/annual global gasoline consumption? Somebody's got that number. I tried a quick google, and hit the reason why I ask others to to this; it's a tangled mess, and the only stats I could find quick were "total petroleum products" - in barrels. uh. what?

Points-

a) Doing these kinds of calculations is pretty EASY - don't leave them to the experts- use your own brain and your own googling ability.

b) Is 23 billion gallons/year- and climbing- worth talking about? or 237 BILLION, if Brian's number is closer? (I'll bet mine is actually low- other corrections might well move it back towards The West Number.)

c) Boy, you better check your numbers before publishing....... :-) I put up like 3 different versions here this morning; because... I'm jammed for time..... haste makes waste..... had to do it over and over... and it's probably STILL not right. No time.

d) Regardless; all those little tiny individual actions- that don't make any difference-
MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE.


Ok, item 2 - this blog has been given an Award!
Thinking Blogger

:-) Gollyjeepers.

Thanks, More Deliberately. I am honored, humbled, etc. And vastly amused that you think I "probably won't appreciate the recognition..." I'll be chuckling about that a good while. Hey, my crusty grandpa act is working! No- I'm human. A pat on the back feels good. Thanks. And, of course, I'm TOTALLY tickled that I'm #3, and Colin is #4. HA! :-)

(that's intended as purely silly juvenile humor, Colin- nothing more. ) :-)

gotta zoom off for the day-