The Iceberg moves again... and...

This is a "good news, bad news" post.  Life is like that, it seems sometimes, one long illustration of "the bad news is, he fell out of the airplane... good news is, he landed on a haystack... bad news is, there was a pitchfork in the haystack..."

The good news is,  the BBC posted the truly startling, and encouraging, results of a large multinational poll today - "4 out of 5" people believe humans will need to significantly alter their lifestyles in order to cope with climate change- and they're ready to do their part.

21 Countries.

More than 80% in China, and more than 75% in the USA.  Those are pretty big numbers- the iceberg IS moving, and in the right direction.  And I positively guarantee you- YOUR ACTIONS have been a huge part of making this happen. 

 "Yeah, I know it sounds crazy, but my neighbor Bill is worried enough that he's started biking to work."   Etc.  Those are the tiny little pushes that actually get folks to pay attention- and think- and change their minds.  Add it all up - our individual actions are powerful.

The bad news is, the Little Blog did finally attract a "troll", and I did finally delete ONE comment for just being, well, sub-human.  As Hank pointed out, feeding trolls makes them come back, and I accidentally fed one in the comments on the last post - "Anonymous" (#2).  I put his first comment up (and will leave it), not recognizing him as a troll- though Hank did.  He was sly- he sounds reasonable, conversational- but ultimately it was just a cranky dig.  The one I deleted was more obvious, and pointless.

Partly I put it up because I am acutely aware of the dangers of just talking to ourselves.  If we all agree, all the time- something is wrong.  And I have no problem with honest, polite disagreement, as I hope I've shown.

The good news is- that troll, who ended his comment with a smug "I know I have no intention of reducing my consumption." - was pretty immediately put in his place by this BBC poll.  Troll- you're in the minority now.  Right around the world.  And yes, you have my pity.  :-)

Then; the bad news is... we seem to be running a streak of crummy luck, if you believe in such things.  Besides having our mowers flooded, truck stolen, solar panels fried by lightning, having my back go out, and getting our mailbox bashed; a week ago Spice was in a car accident.  The other vehicle failed to yield, at a rather poorly set up intersection of rural gravel roads...  and she wound up in the ditch, windshield smashed.  It was a side impact, so the airbags didn't go off- so.. according to MRI scans a couple days ago, she does indeed have "whiplash" injuries; torn ligaments in her neck and shoulder.  Smidgen was in the car- strapped into her car seat, in the back, and is fine, with a little bruising from the straps.

So that's part of why I've been a little short on entries here- we're going to have to take some time off, from everything, so Spice can heal.  No cheating- she's got to rest, much of it in bed, no stress on the ligaments.  Which means I get to carry the wood; and the water; and do most of the cooking, and dishes.  And a lot of Smidgen herding.

And, related good news...  Part of today's breakfast conversation with the Smidge-  "You're my daddy."  "Yes, I am.  And you're my... monkey."  "Yes, I am."  (with no smiles, or joking.)  "And sometimes you're my Tigger."  "Yes, I am."  (no smiles again.)

And she is.  One of her recent inventions is to bounce all the way across the room, Tigger style, then grab a parent, and squeal "Tigger-mamma!"  then immediately bounce to the other parent and proclaim "Tigger-daddy!" - then... repeat, until the parents can't take any more.  And with Spice in a neck-brace...  

sigh.

Pushing On Icebergs

Some weeks ago No Impact Man had a post succinctly titled Why Bother?.

He was looking for input and comment on the very basic question of whether all our little green activities actually make any difference. The responses got kinda rowdy, and some feelings were hurt before it settled down. Actually, I was glad to see the passion, though most of the hurt feelings were pretty unnecessary.

I commented, near the end, and this was part of my comment: "But yes, Greenpeople- we have an elephant in the room, and we DON'T like to think about it. What it boils down to is; what difference does it make if I sacrifice, and cut, and have one child- so that some jerk on the next block can continue to drive his SUV, using the gas I saved- and have 10 kids and 4 plasma televisions and a jetski?...Mostly what I can offer is- I've been doing it for 30 years- am still doing it- and the bottom line is; I'm an optimist. I think there are ways. But it takes what I call 'pushing on icebergs'."

I have come to understand why great teachers lean towards the extensive use of parables. Somehow, the human brain is just more receptive to a story with a good lesson to it than to plain logic. Stories, and metaphors, reach us better.

My metaphor here is that huge societal problems are very much like icebergs. They are huge; massive, with tremendous momentum and inertia. Walk up to an iceberg (standing on anything you can) and push on it, as hard as you can. You will not see ANY response from the iceberg; it's just too massive for you to affect, you and all your force are infinitesimally small in comparison to the berg.

Pretty discouraging.

And yet. Physics; good old physics, should bring you some realizations here- the outcome of which can be positive.

Icebergs - float. They are not attached to the land; and they DO move. Mostly, they move in response to other huge forces; winds and ocean currents. And they tend to go in what looks like random directions.

But like the rest of us, they ARE subject to the laws of physics; if you apply a force to the berg, it DOES have an effect. It has to.

So this big honking iceberg is edging towards you- and if it keeps going the way it is, it's going to crush your boat, which happens to have your family in it. Your boat is anchored fast; you can't just sail out of the way. Do you stand there and watch the berg come? Or do you push?

Granted, there are plenty of folks who would/will just stand there, and watch it come to squash them.

I can't. I'm gonna push on the damn berg for all I'm worth.

Obviously, one little shove IS useless. You have to buckle down; dig in with your feet, get used to the idea that you have to push, and push and push- and no, you won't see anything happening for a very long time. But- Physics is ON YOUR SIDE. If you keep applying force- the berg pretty much has to respond. At least a little.

Another thing that's on your side- humanity. If YOU are busting a gut, trying to turn this oncoming iceberg- SOME of the bystanders WILL join in. It's just human nature. Now- what are the chances you can deflect the berg- if there are 100 people pushing? Better. But most of them won't help- until they see someone already committed. Really committed- and not quitting. More human nature. And sure, there will always be the jackasses who stand by and jeer, and tell you you're crazy.

History- also - is on your side. Immense social icebergs HAVE been shifted out of their course, multiple times. The nicest example is Women's Suffrage. That iceberg had been floating in the male direction only, for THOUSANDS of years. Logic was not responsible for shifting it. It was the emotional commitment of many many people; over many many years. And it started with a few utterly committed women; who refused to quit.

Many of the other examples are not so nice. "Abolition" was bloody and horrific- and in case you haven't noticed, is not really over yet. "Temperance" was astonishing, and ultimately a proof that logic, in isolation from reality, is a disaster. The outcome was not just funny movies, and speakeasies; it was thriving gangsterism, supporting more bloodshed and misery. Gandhi's peaceful persistence also generated bloodshed in the end. Icebergs are dangerous- don't forget that.

I've actually DONE this. Pushing on icebergs. They do move. The main example I'll give you is widely familiar at the moment- good ol' Global Warming. I was a speaker at the 2nd North American Conference - in 1988. Essentially EVERY scary fact and possibility you've heard about recently - was discussed, in detail, at that meeting. Very few people listened to us, and the hot winds generated by the oil companies and capitalists continued to push the iceberg right down its disastrous path.

But; look where we are, after only 20 years of constant, steady pushing, by a very small community. All of a sudden, a whole bunch of folks - thousands of times more than the original pushers- are starting to push too. Frankly, I still haven't seen the berg move- but things are looking up, quite a bit. Boy, though, we wish folks had started to push sooner. Ah, well.

There will never be a sudden huge shift in the iceberg. It's not possible, and we shouldn't expect it. But the direction, and the trends, can be shifted.

Does your one compact fluorescent lightbulb make a difference? Physics says it does. Physics is a good ally.

So. Find a good place to set your feet. Dig in. And push. Don't quit. And don't waste your time yelling at the jackasses to come help- they won't, and the yelling just encourages them.

Just keep pushing. And watch and see- somebody from the crowd will come and start pushing too- right beside you.

I've seen it happen; and I'm still pushing.

"Muscular" Green

It's not like we don't already have enough threads going here. Today, though, the NYT Magazine has got a long long article by Thomas Friedman. It's entitled

The Power of Green

and its basic theme is, "green" is coming fast as our new economic salvation.

Friedman is very articulate. Very knowledgeable. It's worth reading if you've got the time. And he's certainly making progress in understanding our quite desperate circumstances.

"But here’s the bad news: While green has hit Main Street — more Americans than ever now identify themselves as greens, or what I call “Geo-Greens” to differentiate their more muscular and strategic green ideology — green has not gone very far down Main Street. It certainly has not gone anywhere near the distance required to preserve our lifestyle. The dirty little secret is that we’re fooling ourselves. We in America talk like we’re already “the greenest generation,” as the business writer Dan Pink once called it. But here’s the really inconvenient truth: We have not even begun to be serious about the costs, the effort and the scale of change that will be required to shift our country, and eventually the world, to a largely emissions-free energy infrastructure over the next 50 years."

Very very true, all of it.

He still has an underlying assumption, though, that should bring any biologist/ecologist (me) or truly knowledgeable greeny (you) to a dead halt.

He still thinks it's quite reasonable to seek to "preserve our lifestyle" - hence the "more muscular" new green ideology that's being so successful in the idea marketplace. That would be Schwarzenegger's version- where Hummers are still fine, as long as they're powered by bio or hydrogen fuels.

It's been quite painful getting mainstream thought to THIS point. All of the problems associated with climate change were OBVIOUS, and KNOWN- 20 years ago. They really were. I'll let out a little secret here; I've been a speaker at international global warming conferences. My first one was in 1988. If anyone had truly been listening to the climate modelers - all of it was there, up to and including wars for water, and environmental refugees.

I guarantee it's going to be painful getting public opinion even further. But we have to.

Here's the hard hard fact that the "muscular" greenies are still denying:

THE WORLD IS A LIMITED RESOURCE.

We've had a brutal proof of that in the last decade, with the world-wide collapse of ocean fisheries. For hundreds of years, politicians, and fishermen, have insisted that the oceans are simply too big for any human activities to ever make a dent in them.

And for a hundred years, at least, scientists have been warning that this is not so- keep harvesting cod at the present rate, and the population will collapse.

Guess what? The Atlantic cod population has mostly collapsed- the same fisheries where the first Europeans reported schools of cod so dense you could WALK on them- are gone. GONE. Closed. Few fish; and no fishermen.

When the scientists made these predictions- the economists, and fishermen, overruled them. "No, no, you can't take our lifestyle!! You're going to ruin the economics of our towns!"

We're in the process of doing exactly the same thing now with- our ATMOSPHERE. And the business types are making exactly the same mistake. "no, no, you can't take our Hummers away! That's defeatist!"

Arnold- Thomas- you desperately need to go look at the empty oceans. And the empty fishing villages. And the idle boats.

That's the way to kill an industry- and all the lifestyles that went with it.

Your "lifestyle" - is the equivalent of strip-mining.

You cannot have your Earth- and eat it too.

You CANNOT put an unlimited number of middle class Americans into a LIMITED CONTAINER. Earth.

That's PHYSICS, for crying out loud- not sociology, not biology. Physics. Do you believe in gravity?

Gravity doesn't CARE whether you believe in it or not. If you step off a cliff; you will fall. Every time. Hence the empty ocean.


If you are really looking at the numbers- you have to fairly quickly come to understand that the lifestyle of most middle class folks in the 1st world is NEVER going to be possible to maintain- and certainly not to expand. It's been nice, and fun- but it's insanely unrealistic.

The changes we're looking at, if we are to survive in the long run- are still much more extensive than people want to face.

This is why the efforts of people like No Impact Man- and all the rest in this little world of ours, are so very important. It will be hugely useful to have SOMEONE, just down the block, who is quietly living a non-strip-mining life.

Little by little- as people come to understand- it will make all the difference to have an example to follow.

More on this article later.