Keep your eyes on Japan

Hi folks- I'm still here, and still very much want this blog to keep going.  I appreciate your sticking with me.

As I've mentioned in the past couple years, it has become a problem for me to find a topic I can write about without being depressing- when I don't think either you or I need that.

But now that it's no longer a question of "is climate change happening", nor "are world politics getting entirely out of hand" - I find it's actually a little easier to focus on what to say.

I want - if possible - to be one of those who survive.  As a lifelong student of evolution, opting out of survival is how you certainly "lose the game."  If there's a game.  If you can win or lose.

And I hope to bring family and community through, too.  Now the question is "how?"  Because there are no roadmaps; our species and planet are moving into completely unknown territory; we truly do not know what happens next.

One thing I know for certain today (I know something for certain!  How cool is that!) is that most of the world events generating headlines do not come from "new" phenomena, though they are virtually always spun that way by the sophomores in charge of the press.  Income disparity?  Has existed in all societies, in all eras back to Babylon and Sumer - literally.  And has always caused injustice, pain, and slaughter.  Slavery?  Same.  Corrupt officials/police?  Same.  Schools not teaching what students need?  You can find that complaint on clay tablets in cuneiform - really.  Unwelcome, unstoppable, migrants?  Ever heard of Romans?  Hittites/ Mongols/ Europeans? War/ Genocide?  It goes on.  Even climate change and sea level rise; take a look at Doggerland, called "Britain's Atlantis" in the popular press.  That happened so far back we remember as myth- although Australian Aborigines have re-told the story for 10,000 years without losing accuracy.

The point.  The point is that history, available to us all, contains myriad examples we should be learning from.  Mostly, of course humans refuse to learn from history.  I have 2 favorite quotes on that point, the first from Aldous Huxley, "That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach."  Stolen from many sources, usually less wordy, into antiquity.  And a currently popular version, cheerfully sent to me via Facebook, from Spice: "Some of us can learn from other people's mistakes; but most of us just have to piss on the electric fence."  That was stolen from Will Rogers, the earliest wise man with electric fence available for metaphors.

All of history, now that "the google" is here, is at your fingertips.  It's fascinating, highly educational, and tremendously entertaining.  Particularly all the mutually incompossible versions.  I recommend it.

Which finally brings us to Japan.

Japan is unique among "developed" nations, in many ways; but most importantly: A) It is an island- which I pointed out years back would be the first places to be forced to change.  B) It was the top economy on the planet- 20 years ago, and is in decline now.  C) Achieved the highest "standard of living" for the largest percentage of population ever.  D) Is losing population, around 1 million in the past 5 years.  And E) Emerged so recently and directly from feudalism that the people still actively remember most of their pre-industrial culture.  Oh, and lived through "The Atomic Age" - and are now struggling to leave it behind.

Japan is 10-30 years ahead of the curve for the rest of the industrialized countries, in politics and economics and every other aspect of our species I can identify.  They've been there, done that, got the t-shirt, and have worn the t-shirt into rags.

The populace is still stunningly wealthy by world standards; but the future is frightening, downhill tracks are everywhere.  Old and young are worried and depressed to the point of suicide and craziness.

We can see all those problems and tendencies in our own backyards.  But Japan is out in front.  If you want some hint of what is likely coming to the communities near you - watch Japan.

Remember it is what is written between the lines that is most important.  Always.

And keep the incredible variety of wildly enthusiastic Japanese festivals in mind.  They don't know what the future holds - so -

I do like the metaphors available in that photo.  It's dark, and it's cold.  But there are lights, with some warmth.  And people - tending them.  And these lights are facing in all different directions.

No, the problem isn't "jobs".

Ok, yes it is; but not the way everybody in the world thinks it is.

Happy Labor Day! Or as I tend to twist it around here, just for the fun of the confused looks it brings, as well as a way of pointing out the pointlessness of it: "Happy Labrador!"

I desperately need to be out laboring, at the moment, which is what Labor Day is always about for us. Ok, we might barbecue something at the end of the day; but it's harvest time for tree crops, and urgentish.

However, what I have to say here has been fomenting and fermenting in the back of my brain for a long time; and it seems ready to come out. And this is Labor Day; and we're all very unhappy about the fact there are no jobs anywhere; and none in sight down the pike, regardless of politicians braying that they will create lots of new jobs for everyone, as soon as they are elected. By waving their wands about and shouting "expelyourllamas!"

Part of my hesitance in writing this post stems from my awareness that the world will certainly not hear me; my time and effort is likely to be largely wasted. A few of you may hear, though- and who knows; perhaps that will be of some benefit.

The world desperately needs to learn this- but won't, until much chaos and pain has come.

The world does not need "jobs". The world needs people to have "livelihoods".

There. That simple. And something completely not on anyone's radar.

Somehow in the process of industrialization, "we" all accepted the concept that capital would provide "work" - "jobs", in various money making factories or other enterprises, and "workers" would make their livings there- as essentially interchangeable cogs. Exactly as Charlie Chaplin portrayed it. The myth we bought was- become a cog, with no particular skills, but willing to work at whatever is put in front of you- and all the world will prosper; and- you'll be taken care of in your old age, when you can no longer work. On a large enough scale, even highly skilled workers have become only cogs- and perceived as such, even by themselves.

Well, it turns out Big Capital was Just Kidding! about taking care of us in our old age. Now that they own 95% of everything it is possible to own, they're saying "What? Are you filthy communists?? Of course you were always supposed to be providing for your own old age! Why would you expect us to actually pay into your pension funds (never mind that's what we promised you...)?" Some of the Banks now are transferring "toxic assets" - i.e., assets on the books at prices triple what anyone will ever pay again- into their pension funds- listing them at the fantasy value. And saying "what a good boy am I."

So here we are, millions of us; unemployed in Greenland; and essentially unemployable. A cog is a cog is a cog; and a cog in

The First World is much more expensive than a cog in the Third

World, these days. Following the Laws of Capital, and Quarterly

Reports, and Executive Bonuses, Capital has, of course, now

emigrated to the Third World- and is not coming back in any

foreseeable future. Being just a cog - in someone else's wheel - is

a death trap.

No, your nice shiny new Bachelors Degree In Whatever! does not entitle

you to cogship, anymore. Neither does your high school diploma, nor

your GED, nor the fact that you can get a certificate stating you are not

hemiplegic, paraplegic, or psychopathic.

What the world truly needs is a return to the model where people acquire

a "livelihood". Some kind of work, or skill- that creates something of

immediate value to the people around you; a way to "earn your keep" in

the community, for life. Actually, here on the farm, we really need a full

time "shepherd", and a full time "goose girl".

Not in style, yet; but soon, I think.

If you are trying to see a path forward, for yourself and your children-

look for a way to acquire a livelihood. Not a job.

What Would Greenpa Do?

Gingeranne writes:

"I've been reading your blog for several years now and have a favor to ask: if your schedule permits, would you do a post on what you would advise young people if you could? If you were in your twenties/early thirties, knowing what you know, would you choose this life, in this country, all over again? Husband, baby and I are trying to quit the big-city rat race, buy some property cheap (no mortgage if possible) and transition to as self-sufficient a lifestyle as possible. But as my awareness has grown of the depth and breadth of the problems in the country, I truly wonder whether it is even worth trying to stay here to do so. I am appalled by the way we truly seem to be going to hell in a handbasket environmentally, economically, societally and otherwise, and disheartened that most people seem too zombiefied to care. Surely there are other places in the world where sanity and humanity and common sense hold more sway? Or is that just the idealism talking? Your wise insights much appreciated. Many thanks."

Ouch. Was my first thought. And "scary." Do I dare give advice? Do I have any I'd give? You'll be glad to know, Gingeranne, that you spooked me good with that one.

:-)

Particularly since I gleaned this following bit from J.R.R.Tolkien, decades ago. It struck me hard, the first time I ever read it, and still does with each re-reading. The reason we love Tolkien is because he speaks the truth; and his truth comes from genuine ancient wisdom, gleaned from ancient stories. (You know, of course, that he was a scholar of ancient language and myth, specializing for years in the academic dissection of Beowulf, in its original and successive languages.)

This is from The Fellowship Of The Ring; before Frodo has even left the Shire; Frodo speaks:

" 'I have been expecting Gandalf for many days. He was to have come to Hobbiton at the latest two nights ago: but he has never appeared. Now I am wondering what can have happened. Should I wait for him?'

Gildor was silent for a moment. 'I do not like this news,' he said at last. 'That Gandalf should be late, does not bode well. But it is said: Do not meddle in the affairs of wizards, for they are subtle and quick to anger. The choice is yours; to go or to wait.'

'And it is also said,' answered Frodo: 'Go not to the Elves for counsel, for they will say both no and yes.'

'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill. But what would you? You have not told me all concerning yourself; and how then shall I choose better than you? But if you demand advice, I will for friendship's sake give it. I think you should now go at once, without delay; and if Gandalf does not come before you set out, then I also advise this: do not go alone. Take such friends as are trusty and willing.'

My italics. With one exception, I think I cannot do better. Every word of that tiny bit rings true for me.

The one exception comes from whether you should "go", and what that really might mean. Leave your country, to seek a more sane, safer one? Or find a way in the country and culture you know?

Sharon Astyk had a post on this topic just recently, I do recommend you take a look. And, I commented on it, with views others there found compelling.

But.

My answer there was really oversimplified, for debate purposes. My true answer would be exactly Gildor's; the choice is yours, to go or stay. And while my own answer is "stay"; yours might very well be "go". It depends.

I'm staying because I have roots here, and family, and friends; here.

The case for going, sometimes, though, is very strong. If you were a Jew in 1929 Germany - you definitely should have decided to leave, if at all possible. That entire situation was utterly out of control.

There are places in the US at the moment, which have very high potential for getting out of control. And if you are possibly a target for such hatefulness - leaving might be by far the sanest thing you can do. Only you can know.

Changing cultures and countries is a non-trivial decision, though; and I do happen to personally know a very smart and highly educated couple who emigrated to Australia some decades ago, primarily in disgust at US political and social trends (Reagan, at the time). Five years later- it was clear to them that the social realities in Australia were truly no better; nasty people exist everywhere, always. And they did indeed regret making the move, though they have not moved back, either.

So. What if you have some roots here, and no good reason to leave?

It took me a full day, and sleeping on it overnight; but it finally dawned on me: I do have a bit of specific and useful advice to offer. I hope it helps.

Find a Transition Towns group, and start going to their meetings.

Find out if you fit that group. Not everyone fits everywhere, and Transition groups are not different from other human endeavors; some are wonderful, some suffer from abrasive egos- etc.

Find a fit. Find friends. Join that community.

The general consensus, among thinkers I respect, is that no one is going to make it through any of the serious collapse scenarios - alone. Only well-knit communities, well planned, well prepared, are likely to come out the other side.

And, in my serious opinion, the Transition movement is simply the best thing going; anywhere.

Take such friends as are trusty and willing. Hard to beat advice straight from an Eldar Lord.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm going to add one more thing to this post; and I don't know why.

All I know is; this particular song has been running through my mind for 2 days. Somehow; it seems relevant to this discussion. This is MacPherson's Rant (or Lament). There are many versions to the lyrics; and many versions of the legend. What seems clear though is; he was a real man; living in very bad times; who was eventually hanged, legally - for being - half Gypsy.

I paid too much.

  I'm kinda afraid to say "I'm back!" - but; I may be back.  We'll see.  I am back from my trip, and it was a tremendously productive and useful one, the kind that leaves your head spinning with new possibilities, and solutions to old problems, and lots of energy...

  After which, you arrive home to reality, and while it's wonderful; that damned pot hole in the driveway still needs to be fixed...

  And so it goes.  As St. Vonnegut put it repeatedly.  Anyway; an actual post:

  Two days ago, I paid too much for an antique.  On purpose.

  The "antique" is a hand-cranked feed grinder; for turning whole corn etc. into chicken feed.  It's small scale agriculture; but from the day when people bought such things expecting them to work without breaking, for a lifetime; to serve their own needs fully, and well.

  I've needed one for a year, and have been suffering mentally from the fact that before I had any poultry I saw one, languishing in an antique mall, asking to be taken home for a very measly $35; a great 40 lb chunk of cast iron from another era.  Nobody was buying, obviously; it's a heavy working machine, and doesn't transform well into a tchotchke.  I'd admired the beautiful design and utility of it, and passed on; and kicked myself constantly for not buying it, all the days after.

  Once I needed one, they vanished from the antique malls of course.  I looked, asked, drove to see the other dealer across town, etc, for several years, with no luck.  Most dealers knew what it was I was talking about, and had seen them; but were also aware that the market for them was nearly non-existent.

  On my way driving home, I stopped for a break in the small town where I went to high school; a place to which I retain very few ties.  Walked past our old house, noticed that the tuck pointing I'd done on the front stairs was holding up fine, but that whatever I hadn't repaired then was now in desperate need.  And finding a couple of antique stores, looked in mostly out of community curiosity, not real hope.  They always ask; "Looking for anything special?"  And I always answer, as a way to open communication, and ease the situation dynamics.  "Yeah, I'm looking for a... "  and the hands start flailing about to express dimensions and actions.

  "Nope.  But the other store back up town might- they've got a basement."  Ok.  Trudge.  "Oh, I really don't know.  I have two dealers who might; let's see - "  and hailing one who happened to be in, relayed my request.  "Well.  Maybe."

  Let's look.  And there, behold, is my feed grinder.  Cleaned up to an insane degree, and painted fire engine red in hopes of achieving tchotchke-hood, but there it is; massive cast iron, with enough wear on the iron teeth to prove a long and useful career already achieved; with another hundred years left in it.

  There's the tag.  Flip it over.  $145.00.

  Now- the lady, who inadvertently had blurted "you know, we thought that's what it was!" and thus revealed her position of inferior knowledge, was looking at me very hopefully, as I looked up from the tag.  There wasn't any doubt in my mind that if I'd played the game, she'd have cheerfully taken $100; or maybe a lot less- ("man, the last one I saw was a lot better, and they were only asking $35!") but instead, I gave her a full-smile, put out my hand, and said "Done!"

  And I was actually aware of what I was doing.  I was willing to pay the exorbitant price for two reasons.  One; pure celebratory joy that I'd succeeded in this long search, and I can now grind my own stuff to feed the guineas and chickens; and Two -

  Two is more complicated.  This was a piece of pretty important machinery to me; and similar bits of old technology exist in many corners of antique stores, attics, basements and barns.  Most of these old tools wind up thrown away.  "Nobody wants that junk anymore; it's just scrap."

  A bunch of the tools I used to build this house came out of antique stores; and the need for these simpler machines is increasing, not decreasing.

  I paid the price cheerfully - to encourage, forcefully, this lady and her antique dealer friends to preserve the old tools when they find them; and make them available to those of us who recognize and want them.  I didn't tell her that.

  I doubt that extra $45 will ever find its way back to me, in karmic payoff.  But.  It was my contribution, for the day, to the direction of human enterprise.  Hopefully, it will help a few others find what they need, down the road.

  A little shove on the iceberg.

The handbasket is getting cramped.

Still wrassling with the cruddy tummy; plus, we're one of those places where it's been raining constantly.  Last night I was up until midnight, watching the weather radar; waiting to see if I needed to head for the root cellar.  We lucked out; the storms lost a fair amount of intensity just before passing over; an inch of rain and a couple near lightning strikes was all we got.

As many of you know, I frequently comment over on The Automatic Earth.  (There are a lot of days when I can manage to read and react; but don't really have the energy needed for a coherent and worthwhile post of my own.)

One of the readers there took some of Stoneleigh's words, and some of the pictures Ilargi uses to introduce each post there; and edited it all into this video.

   For some reason, the embed process wasn't working for me today.   Watch it; it's not long, nice music.  And pretty pessimistic.  But if you're not feeling pessimistic these days, I'd have to think you're not paying attention.  The rate at which really bad news hits us seems to have doubled from only 6 months ago.  One million people in the US have lost all unemployment benefits recently; and many more will be in the same handbasket to hell shortly.  They will have nothing to pay any of their bills with.  Which means some of the people they've managed to keep paying will now be unable to pay their bills.  Even Joe Biden admitted last week that many of the jobs lost so far will never come back.

  One good thing.  Listen to the tone of Stoneleigh's voice.  She knows how bad things look, in an astonishingly lucid way.  But you will not hear despair in her voice.

Hunger in the USA #2

Yesterday, three teenage girls were killed by a train in Florida.  So far the news isn't defining "teen"; my guess would be 13-15.

They were on a railroad bridge over a river.  Just goofing around together.  A train came, and hit them.

There were people yelling at them to jump into the river, about 20 feet down according to some reports- another one says there was a parallel track they might have jumped to; old and rusted- but without a train on it.

Yes indeedy; they made really bad choices, every step of the way.

Sharon Astyk is writing about living on food stamps today, and has this to say at one point in the comments:   "Look, no one is going to argue that it would have been better for her to make better choices, but when you start 500 yards behind everyone else, you are going to lose the race unless someone provides some extraordinary help."

In my previous post on this topic we got to this point: " Very simply- lack of food is NOT the problem; and money is NOT the answer. Can't get much simpler than that."

Which is not a very useful place to get to, unless, maybe, it can suggest a new way forward.  What is the problem?  What is the answer?

I have one.  Answer.  Not, alas all of them; but maybe one.

Which hit me as a result of reading all the comments on that post.  Good stuff; good thinking- stimulating.  I'm proud of you readers.

One of the problems is - people making bad choices; repeatedly.  Being judgmental about that is totally useless; finger-shaking never fixed anything.  Besides which- if you know anyone in this kind of fix; it usually turns out there's a real, unfixable, reason for how they got there.  Being abused as a child being one of the most common.

We can't go back and fix that.  So- what could we do; now?

You know- there is something; and it actually hits several needs, in a really serious way.

Typically, with a person like Sharon's Eva,  or our Christina, when they go for help, they are connected to some kind of social worker.  An overworked one.  And most likely, since humans work this way, someone they may fear, or just not be able to connect to.

The social worker gives advice- the client listens, and takes a crack at it- and nothing happens.

Eva, and Christina- and those 3 dead girls - never had anyone teach them "how to live".

They really don't know how; for one reason or another, their ability to deal with reality is just very thin.  (My suspicions would be dismal parenting; and too much "screen time".  It's easy these days to grow up in a world where when you die, you just go get another life, and try over.  I think kids really need to fall out of trees- and we've made it very difficult.)

What they need is - someone to teach them now.

Who?

Not the social worker.  The woman down the street who is in the same financial fix- but is coping.  A peer.  A neighbor.  Someone with the time to come and cook with them; and coach- to show them not just what to do, but help them build the habits that are so crucial.  Probably share a little child care.  Maybe share a ride to a good grocery.  Shop together.

Now- the social worker knows both these ladies.  They're both on food stamps- it's just one is lost, and one is struggling through.  The social worker could put them together.

Are we throwing tons of money at this problem?  Is it helping?  (that would be 'yes', and 'no').

What we truly could and should do is start a "coach" program.  Let's pay the lady who is coping, to spend time with, and teach, and coach, the lady who is failing.   (What the hell, we're printing money like it's going out of style already- just not getting any of it to anyone who needs it.)

Somebody would get paid a little money (JOBS!!) - and - an ineffective program could be make somewhat effective, at least.  And you know- it's a sure bet that some times, a lady who managed to get turned around- will go on to become a coach.  Paid.  And really effective.

If the two ladies don't get along?  Pick someone else.  There are plenty to choose from.

This could be done.  And it could actually make a difference.  And cut down on isolation.  And build community.

Sharon and Crunchy - here's your next project.

:-)

Anybody know any legislators working on this kind of stuff?  Send them this post.

High stress-

Yesterday we got both our dogs "fixed". It's traumatic. For me, anyway.

Poor Delilah- looks up at me with those very sad hound-puppy eyes. She hurts- and yesterday she was abandoned to strangers all day. That had never happened in her world before. Today she's mostly just lying down. And looking at me.

Luckily, she had Theodore with her in the same cage all day. They are such buddies- they eat, always, from the same dish; often at the same time. In fact we got two dishes- and regularly kept them both filled. Every day, one dish would be sparkling clean; and one untouched. Then they'd start, together, on the second dish.

Delilah is just over a full year old, and mature for her age. Catahoula mom, Boxer dad. At the vet's, they told us she now weighs 47 lbs. Theodore is less than 4 months; Anatolian mom, probably Australian shepherd dad - he's 49 lbs, and a little taller than Delilah already. Both dogs are nowhere near as hard headed as you'd expect their moms to be; both are very smart and very willing.

But- we got them fixed for 2 reasons- a) the genetics of their offspring would be much less predictable than their own; and b) we want them to stay home, and not get involved in mating battles that can shorten their lives. (Oh, yeah, and c) we had to promise to fix them when we got them from the shelter. That counts. But she still looks at me.)

Genetically, they are like F1 hybrid corn- a cross between two unrelated highly inbred (homozygous) lines. Hybrid vigor is maximized in that situation. But in the next cross, unless you're a geneticist and willing to discard a lot of progeny- the hybrid vigor starts to fall apart, and the pups get unpredictable, in a lot of ways. Not what we need, either.

It's all morally confusing. Theodore is eating and wants to get into my lap. But sweet, grown up, well mannered Delilah- looks at me, all the time.

:-(