Friday, January 2, 2009

Fantasy/Reality-

Ok, I must be feeling better, because here comes one of those "I just can't STAND it" posts.

The first day of stock market trading for the new year is over- and guess what?  Everything is all better!  According to ALL the mainstream media.  Here's CNN Business' take: 

Wall Street starts new year with a bang!

Stocks rally, with the Dow closing above 9,000 for the first time since November.

(Can you say "BULL!"?  Below is their version; then below that; mine.)

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: January 2, 2009: 6:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with investors starting off a new year on the right foot, after an abysmal 2008, and the Dow closing above 9,000 for the first time since November.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 258 points, or 2.9%. It was the second-best start of the year on a point basis, according to Dow Jones. On a percentage basis, it was the sixth best start of the year.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index gained 3.2% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 3.5%.

"It's the classic Santa Claus rally and people don't want to miss the boat, although the volume is pretty light," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, a combination of the last five trading days of the previous year and the first two of the next have yielded an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950. The S&P is up 7.3% as of Friday's close.

"It's a nice start to the year, but we're not going to get too excited about it until we see a sustained advance on higher volume," said Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment Advisors.

Saluzzi, King and other analysts are cautiously optimistic that Wall Street will recover some in 2009. However, the extent of any market recovery will depend on a variety of factors, including what kind of economic stimulus package the new Congress approves - and the depth of the recession.

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Wall Street starts new year with a gib gnab!


By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer- As corrected by Greenpa
Last Updated: January 2, 2009: 6:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with investors starting off a new year on the right foot, after an abysmal 2008, and the Dow closing above 9,000 for the first time since November.  Pretty wonderful progress, considering that just one year ago, the Dow started the year at over 12,500.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 258 points, or 2.9%. It was the second-best start of the year on a point basis, according to Dow Jones. On a percentage basis, it was the sixth best start of the year.  Compared to the average daily trading changes over the past year, a move of 258 points is totally meaningless; the market has repeatedly been up 250 and down 250, or far more, with no trends established.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index gained 3.2% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 3.5%.  Those percentages look big, compared to movements in recent years, because the total value of the market is so much lower than just one year ago- a movement of a few dollars looks much bigger now, allowing much more exciting journalism.

"It's the classic Santa Claus rally and people don't want to miss the boat, although the volume is pretty light," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.  "These 'bear trap' rallies are SO much fun to watch." someone in the room muttered, under his breath.  "I'm selling short again, bigtime."

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, a combination of the last five trading days of the previous year and the first two of the next have yielded an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950. The S&P is up 7.3% as of Friday's close.  According to the Old Farmers Almanac, a combination of the first three snowfalls of December, and the first two Santa Claus rallies of the New Year, have yielded an average return of 2.5 potatoes, and a partridge in a pear tree, since 1854.  Except when it didn't.

"It's a nice start to the year, but we're not going to get too excited about it until we see a sustained advance on higher volume," said Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment Advisors.  Mutt Queen, chief recovery officer at Dingaling Divestment Advisors, had exactly the same comment.

Saluzzi, King and other analysts are cautiously optimistic that Wall Street will recover some in 2009. Thousands of other analysts are not in the least optimistic, of course, and are moving to the highlands of Borneo as fast as air transport can be arranged.  The cargo cults there receive them graciously.

However, the extent of any market recovery will depend on a variety of factors, including what kind of economic stimulus package the new Congress approves - and the depth of the depression.  

"Look, since 100% of ALL indicators from that pesky "real" economy are way past "uh-oh" and into "holyshitrunforyourlife" - it's fun to still have some fantasy nice days in the "financial sector" - before it totally disappears." said Bunny Berninny, a stripper working off-Wall Street.  "You gotta get your jollies where you can these days."

7 comments:

Lynette said...

I would just like to take a moment and tell you how much I enjoy reading your blog. I lurk out here in blog land, some I like, some are..... whatever, but I always enjoy your's. We are probably about as different as night and day, but I think one thing I enjoy, and you nailed it on the head, is the wisdom I perceive when I read your comments, and the humor! My husband doesn't think I have a sense of humor, but I really chuckled when I read this, thanks for sharing yourself.

Heather said...

HA!

My brother is a stock broker and he is fun to argue with.

:)

Greenpa said...

Lynette- wow. thanks. that does mean a lot.

Heather- glad it's fun! Could be otherwise.

PocketsoftheFuture said...

As is taught in the philosophy of science, the answers you get depend upon the questions you ask.

We citizens should spend less time analyzing the answers these money pundits give and more time analyzing the shallow questions they are asking in the first place. Then we could put their so-called answers into proper perspective.

And then go home and start asking ourselves the real questions and wait patiently for the real answers to arise from within.

It is a wholly different way of life that-a-way. And the money pundits would be left talking to the only appropriate audience - themselves.

Thanks for the humor!
Leslie

jewishfarmer said...

CNN Bzi is my favorite comedy channel, way ahead of Comedy Central ;-).

Sharon

RC said...

Let's see, It's Jan. 7 now, and the rally is long gone. I don't know whether to laugh or cry, but my lack of any PC sensibilities leads me to choose hilarity. People are still in the stock market? Surely you jest.
They're supposed to be jumping into the bond bubble. Or the expected infrastructure corporation windfall.
Or the alternative energy sector which has hopped recently, but is now skipping due to cheap oil.
It is all so confusing. Excuse me while I go back to my planting.

Hank Roberts said...

There's some sense out there.
More than I've seen in a while.

http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2009/01/tim-oreilly-gets-it.html

http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/01/the-biggest-ponzi-scheme-of-all.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05berry.html?_r=2