Oops. 60 cm; instead of 3 meters of water in the reactor-

Just a little shocker to take your mind off health care.. from NHK, and I'll bet you don't hear about this one again...

TEPCO: Just 60cm of water in Fukushima reactor

Tokyo Electric Power Company says it has found that the cooling water in one of the damaged reactors at Fukushima is only 60 centimeters deep, far lower than previously thought.

The utility confirmed the water level by inserting an endoscope into the No.2 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on Monday.

TEPCO had thought that the water level was about 3 meters. It has been injecting nearly 9 tons of water per hour into the reactor to cool the melted fuel that has fallen to the bottom of the containment vessel.

But the shallow level indicates that the water continues to leak into the reactor building through the suppression chambers under the vessel.

The utility argues that the fuel is still being cooled, as the water temperature remains at around 48 degrees Celsius.

But the low level suggests that decommissioning the reactor could be much more difficult. The operator may need to repair more parts of the containment vessel so it can be filled with water to block the strong radiation.

The No. 2 reactor's containment vessel is believed to have been damaged on March 15th with the sudden loss of pressure inside the reactor.

Monday's survey was the second look inside the No.2 reactor since January. During the first survey, an endoscope was unable to confirm the water level in the containment vessel. This time, TEPCO used a scope that is 10 meters longer.

Monday, March 26, 2012 21:40 +0900 (JST)

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UPDATE, 3/27-

The AP did pick up the story- which is repeated in several places, among them the Washington Post. It has, as expected, disappeared from the NHK news feed.

You have to pick out the bits of information on what is actually going on- basically, instead of 10 meters of water in the containment vessel, supposed to be cooling it; there are 60 cm- and all this time, TEPCO has been pouring cooling water into it- and the water has just been leaking right out the bottom (carrying radioactive stuff with it, of course) - and going- nobody knows where.

They didn't know. They hadn't looked. Yes, this is still going on, right now- the cracked reactors continue to leak. Into the ocean, of course. They did admit today that "80 liters" of strontium contaminated water had reached the sea:

TEPCO: Strontium leaked into the sea off Fukushima

Tokyo Electric Power Company says about 80 liters of water contaminated with radioactive strontium has leaked into the sea off the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Workers found the leak in tanks at the plant site around 8:30 AM on Monday. The facilities store water after radioactive materials are removed.

The leakage stopped 20 minutes later when the workers turned the pumps off.

But the firm estimates that 120 tons of water has seeped out through pipe connections, and 80 liters reached the ocean via a sewer system located below the pipes.

TEPCO said it detected highly radioactive substances in the sea water around the overflow, emitting 0.25 becquerels per cubic centimeters of beta particles.

It said a safety barrier is still under construction and was unable to stop the spill.

The utility had a similar incident at the plant last December. After that, the government had declared a cold shutdown but since then, water has leaked many times.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012 01:19 +0900 (JST)

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So, that's all right, then.

OMG. Actual good news.

One of the barriers to my writing more is the deep, deep, "good news" deficit the world has been running. I see limited value in just passing on depression; so tend to take the Thumper Option. I think we hit Peak Good News back in the 1950's.

But- here today- and in the New York Times, forsooth- is a chunk of what I have to consider seriously good news.

A company is entering the real world with a potentially world-changing technology- the first application of which is in solar power; a way to peel silicon wafers, 20 microns thick, off the stock material, rather than sawing far thicker wafers.

Take my word for it; that's HUGE. The cost per watt for photovoltaics is already under the supposed magic point of $1/watt, for large installations. Which is why Solyndra went broke. My guess- when this is fully mature, this process could put it under 10¢/watt; and in just a few years.

Genuinely mind-boggling. Kiss your nukes goodbye.

And it shifts the entire solar energy world. The barrier is just not cost of the cells, any more; it's the cost of the land to put them on; costs of installation and maintenance.

There is, you'll be glad to know, plenty of bad news there. While the inventor of this new process can rightly expect to make mind-blowing profits- the profits associated with a 30 year contract to keep a square mile of solar panels clean and connected- are not going to interest Big Capital. It's just not sexy enough. And; there will increasingly be security problems- like the moron who decided to shoot out a wind generator near here yesterday.

But, hey; there's a new career track opening up. Night watchman/woman at a solar power generator. That'll impress them at the singles bar. :-)

A bit more seriously- I do see this as a big technological leap forward. But, my inner Eeyore does grumpily demand acknowledgement of this particular bad aspect: it will encourage the "technophiles", who insist that progress in technology will, of course, solve all human and environmental problems.

Oh, that's a really, really, bad bet; and one not actually supported by history. While this means a lot in regard to clean energy, one of the most likely outcomes will ultimately be- more babies. And we know where that goes.

More News From Bree

That's a Tolkien quote; a phrase used to indicate news from far away, which is therefore highly doubtful, if not laughable.

We're struggling with climate change here, right at the moment; the calendar says March 13; but the weather seems to have settled on about April 25th. Or maybe May 10; hard to say exactly.

On a farm of any kind; you have to jump when spring hits; and it's here far too early, which causes dislocations in other work loads. Exhaustion is a side effect of climate change which is rarely addressed.

All of which is by way of making excuses for my lack of good activity here. Sorry. Working on it.

Meanwhile; I'm going to put up another couple of in toto quotes from Japanese public televsion news; if you'll check the last post, indeed the links to the original stories no longer work. So you have to grab this stuff while you can.

Three stories which will NOT hit MSM repeats here inside The Shire; one stemming from the anniversary of the quake/tsunami/melt-throughs:

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Human chain surrounds Diet in anti-nuclear rally

Thousands of people have formed a human chain around Japan's Diet to call for scrapping nuclear power plants in the country.

The protesters held the rally in central Tokyo on Sunday, the first anniversary of the powerful earthquake and tsunami that triggered the nuclear accident in Fukushima.

They observed a minute of silence at 2:46 PM, the time the quake struck. The demonstrators then marched to the Diet building and formed the human chain.

A 71-year-old man from Tokyo said he used electricity generated at the Fukushima plant while people from the prefecture shouldered the burden. He said nuclear plants must be shut down and everyone in Japan should think about energy issues.

A woman who brought her child to the rally said it's unthinkable to keep nuclear plants that could cause accidents and force people to leave their homes because of radioactive contamination.

A university student said daily life would become inconvenient if nuclear plants were shut down, but this is the time to switch to other energy sources to ensure safety 30 years from now.

Sunday, March 11, 2012 23:09 +0900 (JST)

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Such a demonstration would have been impossible/unthinkable- before Fukushima. But the attitudes being reported from the common people in Japan are now radically different.

And; NHK goes to lengths to report on anti-nuclear activity elsewhere on the globe; which we do not hear about from our regular news sources. 30,000 people protesting in France, against nukes? Nah, that's not news.

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Protestors say "No" to nuclear power plants

Around 30,000 protestors came together in France on Sunday to form a human chain to call for an end to nuclear energy.

One year after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, people linked arms for some 230 kilometers along a major road in southeastern France, where many nuclear facilities are located.

Demonstrators from France, Germany and Switzerland also rallied at 10 sites as part of the anti-nuclear power protest set up by an NGO.

In the town of Cruas, which has power plant facilities, many protestors, including children and old people, formed a human chain and chanted "No to nuclear power."

One participant said that even though Japan is known for its advanced technology, it still experienced a nuclear catastrophe. He said that means it will be even more difficult for France to avoid such risks.

Almost 80 percent of France's electricity is generated by nuclear power. The country has 58 reactors, the second-largest number in the world after the United States. In the wake of the nuclear accident in Japan, the French anti-nuclear movement has gained momentum.

Anti-nuclear rallies were also held across the United States on Sunday.

In New York, about 200 people, including some Japanese, marched through the city center, calling for a society without nuclear energy.

The protestors gathered in a square in Manhattan to hear speakers call on the world to learn from Fukushima to build a society without nuclear power stations.

Monday, March 12, 2012 11:05 +0900 (JST)

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And another story about the memory of war, from the losing side. Japan often teaches its high school students essentially nothing about WWII; where Germany teaches basically everything; from Hitler to the Holocaust.

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67th anniversary of US air raids on Tokyo

Tokyo is observing the 67th anniversary of massive US air raids during World War Two.

About 100,000 people living mainly in eastern residential areas of Tokyo are estimated to have been killed in the predawn raids and fire after the attack on March 10, 1945.

A memorial service was held on Saturday at the site in Sumida ward that contains the unidentified ashes of 105,000 people.

More than 350 people, including family members of the dead, mourned the victims.

A 71-year-old man, remembering the area burned flat that day, said he wants to tell his late father and brothers that he is now living in peace and in good health thanks to them.

An 80-year-old woman said she could not forget watching her mother die while trying to flee the devastation along with family members. She added that she wants to describe the disaster to her grandchildren as part of the horror of war.

The metropolitan government is still identifying the dead of that time.

Saturday, March 10, 2012 21:50 +0900 (JST)

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And, fourthly; a "canary in the coalmine" story; which I am struggling to comprehend:

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Beer shipments plunge in February

Shipments of beer and beer-like beverages in Japan dropped in February to a record low for the reporting month.

Domestic shipments totaled just less than 360,000 kiloliters. That's the lowest for the month of February since comparable records became available in 1992.

The February shipments were down 4.7 percent year-on-year, and marked a third straight month of decline.

Demand was hit by cold weather and heavy snowfall in parts of Japan. Beer makers add that sales of new, non-alcoholic-type drinks also hurt beer shipments.

Monday, March 12, 2012 12:36 +0900 (JST)

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Beer consumption is down???? I think some analysis is called for! "Cold weather" might be part of it- but others are up... people usually drink a little more beer if they're feeling depressed, which all other measures in Japan indicate is the case... Is it possible to become too depressed to drink beer? That would news.

Just some more fun stuff to contemplate, as you go about your business today.

Slippery news

One of the things needed, if you're going to strive for rationality- is "facts" that have some chance of being real. And it's getting harder to get hold of those, or to keep them where everyone can see.

One of the news sources I regularly scan is the NHK World feed; the Japanese version of National Public Television.

For reasons that are fascinating to speculate about, this news source often seems to be almost "unfiltered" - they just blurt out the truth, as they record it from first hand sources.

Like this; for instance, in toto:

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"40% of residents' exposure tops annual limit"

"More than 40 percent of the people surveyed in 3 municipalities near the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant were exposed to radioactivity levels above the annual safety limit in the 4 months after the disaster.

"Fukushima Prefecture released on Monday the results of its survey of external radioactive exposure among some 9,750 residents of 2 towns and a village after the accident last March. This number excluded people working in places with high radioactivity, such as a nuclear plant.

"Participants were asked about their behavior over a 4-month period immediately following the nuclear accident in order to estimate their external exposure.

"Forty-two percent of the respondents are estimated to have received more than one millisievert --- the annual limit for the general public --- in the 4 months following the disaster.

"Estimated exposure exceeded 10 millisieverts for 71 people. The highest dose was 23 millisieverts for an adult woman.

"Among young people under the age of 20 at the time of the accident, the highest exposure was 18.1 millisieverts over 4 months.

"The prefecture is conducting the survey on all its 2 million residents.

Monday, February 20, 2012 19:28 +0900 (JST)"

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The thing is- the next day; you can't find that story anywhere. I'm pretty sure the "filters" kicked in. The original link does still work, one day later; but my experience is that in several days, they stop working; hence my in toto quote.

Do you suppose it would be news, of international interest, that where 1 millisievert per year is the "allowed" dose, they were finding numerous people with 10 millisieverts - accumulated in 4 months? And some up to 20?

Nah. Haven't seen anyone pick it up, yet.

Then; today's fun story from them:

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"Survey: 95% of disaster debris not yet disposed of

"The Japanese Environment Ministry says 95 percent of debris from last year's disaster in northeastern Japan has yet to be disposed of more than 11 months on.

"The March 11 quake and tsunami created more than 22 million tons of debris on the coasts of hardest-hit Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures alone.

"The ministry said on Tuesday that just over one million tons, or 5 percent, of debris has been either incinerated or buried. 72 percent is still stored at temporary sites.

"The ministry says many of the incinerators planned for disaster-stricken municipalities have yet to enter operation. It cites the difficulty in finding sites for new incinerators.

"The ministry also says disposal in other areas of Japan, expected to shoulder 4 million tons of debris, has hardly begun.

"Environment Minister Goshi Hosono told reporters the ministry's goal of completing disposal by the end of March, 2014 is unrealistic.

"He asked municipalities outside the disaster-affected region to help, noting that delays are greatly hampering reconstruction.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012 13:25 +0900 (JST)"

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The link for that is here.

Hey, I just wouldn't want you all to be worrying about Greece today, and forget that the problems in Japan are - pretty much entirely not dealt with. At all.

But hey- Technology will certainly come to our rescue; the free-market system guarantees it!

The Struggle for Rationality

Gaia's Daughter commented on the last post, and I was in the process of responding when I realized I had a new post on my hands.  Her second comment (read the first, too):


"Okay, my last comment was really depressing so I thought I might amend it a bit. I do think that circumstances may force Truth upon us sooner rather than later . . . the day of 'no other alternatives' may be closer than we think. I also believe that there are a lot of exceptional people out there planting those seeds for a better future -- a future that may surprise us."


 Gaia's- lots of things there I totally agree with; in fact I'd probably intensify most of them.  Your "People for the most part are not really rational beings -", for example, is wildly optimistic.   :-) And boy, am I not kidding.


   The vast majority of humans operate their entire lives on exactly the same mental levels as all the other species on the globe; we simply react to the environment around them.  Even the most enlightened and and aware of us mostly run on auto-pilot; and the illusion that our actions are based on "reason" is exactly that- illusion.  There are vast tomes written on this subject, which we reasoning people read, groan over, and ignore.  A good place to start investigating is the classic "Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds."  And I will again say, with no kidding whatsoever, boy, was MacKay ever an optimist. And you will note, from the date of the work, that this is hardly a new conversation.


   There is, however, a spark of rationality in our species.  We are aware that logic and reason exist.  And we know they can be useful.  History is almost our only real tool for demonstrating this, but its arguments are forceful.  The slow, painful, and intentional invention of Science being my best example.


  Persons striving for Rationality, like you and me, observed that the "knowledge" belonging to the human race, which we use for making life or death decisions of all kinds, was in fact an utter rag-bag of nonsense.  Aristotle, for example, propagated the most absurd information (geese grow from barnacles) as absolute fact- and these facts were accepted as gospel, for centuries.


  The founders of Science first - noticed that.  I will point out that "noticing" is an incredible achievement, and far from easy or simple.  It amounts to my statement yesterday that I spend most of my time trying to see - what is the problem.


  Then astonishingly, the Founders of Science did something second: they sought to do something about the problem.  I will point out here that they probably did not make a rational choice to pursue this huge problem.  It was more likely motivated by other animal drives.  But pursue they did; until the pursuit took on its own life, becoming a cultural force of its own.  The result; which took hundreds of years and hundreds of human minds to refine; is the Scientific Method.  It is now tightly formulated, in several places, most accessibly and neatly (to my mind) in Koch's Postulates.  Understand- the refining of the Method is not finished; and a huge number of people who make their living as "scientists" in fact do not follow the Method.  Many don't truly understand it; and like all tools in the universe it can be abused.  But.  Used carefully; the Scientific Method is an algorithm for Truth.  It can, and does, distinguish between illusion and components of Objective Reality.   (If you're one of those who dispute the existence of objective reality, you might as well leave now.  You will gain no traction here.  I believe on Gravity.)


Alas- here is where we are stuck.  We have a tool we can use to discover Truth.  But we became philosophically sidetracked when the vast majority of educated persons, putatively trained to rational thought, made the irrational and generally unstated assumption that Truth = Good; or more usefully and less commonly put, Truth = Wisdom.  We have, I will firmly state, abundant evidence that those equations are invalid.


  May I state it this way?  I have noticed that - our collections of Truths, or Knowledge now validated by Science, are assumed to operate also as Wisdom.  But in fact- we have a useless rag-bag of collective Wisdom.  Exactly equal to Aristotelian Knowledge.


  What we need is another collective effort to establish the equivalent of the Scientific Method; but it needs to be a method that will return Wisdom; valid, reproducible, objective, operable.


  Recall that it took hundreds of years and hundreds of minds to sort the Scientific Method out of the tangle of mental processes that preceded it.  Ignore for the moment that it's still only a tiny minority of human minds that actually use or comprehend Science- remember that that tiny minority, and Science, have utterly and irrevocably altered the world.  Acknowledged or not, the power of the Scientific Method is irrefutable.


  That's what I'm asking of you all.  Gaia's Daughter- your thinking shows me you are on the path.  You're finding it depressing.  So do I; but realize you are in the same place as the scientific thinkers in the 11th Century- struggling through millennia of mental murk.  


   And I'm afraid I must add a depressing observation of my own, re: your comment  "I do think that circumstances may force Truth upon us sooner rather than later . . . the day of 'no other alternatives' may be closer than we think. "   Alas, the astonishing durability of delusional systems is broadly demonstrated, historically.  The US Wall Street Stock Markets being a case in point- there's no shred of rationality anywhere; yet it keeps going.  


   We can all see, very clearly, that the path humanity is currently on cannot endure, and is deeply unjust in many ways; but I'm beginning to suspect it can keep going, in robust zombie mode, for a long time.  Change may not be able to depend on collapse; likewise collapse might not enforce change.  If we want a healthy, just planet, we may have to find new ways.


  It is not easy- to see where no one has seen before.  I doubt that one mind can do it all.


  But we need to try.  And why should we not start here?


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   And, another "tsk-tsk!" from the New York Times today, with a story of Truth inserted into the system and ignored, leading to disaster.  Do read it.  And the fate of the poor fellow who tried to make the system work; expected it to; trusted it to.  This is our reality- across the board.  Not the exception.  Yet the great majority of us still come out of higher education, and find this surprising and counter-intuitive.  
   
   Then we get depressed about it, and withdraw (I'm not an exception.)  


   What we need to do, is find a new way to engage the problem.  Entirely new.  The "Occupy" people are on the right track- they have no stated agenda- because they are smart enough to know they do not know what is needed.  


   Like the invention of Science- progress on problems of this magnitude come very slowly and in tiny pieces.  Put it on your list.

So; the problem is...

   That, actually, is what I spend most of my time trying to see.  Exactly what is - the problem?

   I can tell you this; 9 times out of 10, in our world, "the problem" is misidentified or unrecognized.  Or even more frequently, denied.  What problem?

   There is an excellent bit of investigative reporting in the New York Times today (alas, not all that common).  It details how one determined man uncovered virtually all the abuses in the mortgage industry, years ago- reported it to all the various relevant authorities - and was ignored completely.

   It's an excellent study in the powerlessness of the individual, these days.  And to my mind- the reporter, well buried in the story, entirely misses her own point.

   She thinks this is a story about corruption in the mortgage and financial industries.  But it isn't.

   It's a wonderful, excellent, exhaustively documented story about how "truth", clearly and authoritatively presented, fails to penetrate our cultural apparatus to bring about corrections and change.  Systemically.

   This is "the problem" I'm talking about in the blog title.  Here on this blog, and on the various companions we all tend to peruse, we have an unusual collection of highly intelligent folks, able to see through the various cultural smoke screens, and see, really, truly, how this or that societal practice is inadequate to our needs, and we can recommend excellent possibilities for how it could, really, be made to work better.  We do it all the time.

  But The Truth -whichever one we're talking about at the moment - has no traction.  Systemically.

  The problem about this problem is- we believe otherwise.  The true religion of Academia, in particular, is the belief that discovering truth will bring change, progress, justice - good.  You just have to discover it.  Then, magically, Truth brings good.

  Manifestly- this is not so.  The present article in the Times documents that, in detail- and yet, still ends on the hopeful note that now, at last, these truths will bring change for the better.  100% of experience to the contrary notwithstanding.  Faith - not reason - claiming that reason will prevail.

  Personally- my own religion is - action.

   Now that I know The Truth Has No Traction - what do I do about that?

   First, tell you.

   Second - ask you: ok, so- from the cultural standpoint- how can we systemically give tank treads to Truth?

Plugging away; and, Guinea fowl...

Hi, folks.

Hopefully, I'll be writing more regularly again. We just had a big pile of "stuff" all at the same time, over the past weeks; leaving me with very little energy.

I come back here though, because of you guys. Some of the "stuff" was hard and depressing (of course- it's life) but it cheers me up to check back here and see that my readers stick- and in fact even slowly increase, even when I'm not writing actively. It's nice to be listened to.

One of the things slowing down my return to regular writing is the huge number of things that need writing about. Way too many. Too many of which are downer type things that I don't just want to dump on you. (Like, for example, the really great news from Japan this week; that they will be starting to actually try to tap deep ocean methane clathrates, opening up an entirely new, and huge, can of fossil fuel worms for the world.) Not going there, at the moment, you'll have to fret on your own.

I've got brain overload; and I've been reluctant to just pass it casually on. Not helpful. But then, in comments on my last post, Tickmeister asked for "useful guinea fowl information" - and that triggered my avalanche.

First of all, Ticky, do search the blog here for "guinea"; there will be quite a few posts, with a bunch of information. Start there. What I wrote is still valid. (Well, except for the part where I said "we've solved all these problems..." oooh, embarrassing, that one.)

But; I did leave the entire enterprise hanging; promising "more soon", and failing to deliver. The problem was the "more". There's too much "more"; and most of it is murky. I hate putting out non-information, it's a pet peeve of mine when I have to sift through other people's crap: "We just got guineas last week, and they're the greatest! You need to get some now!" Yeah? How'd that look at 2 years? Silence.

Quick summary on guinea fowl: We've had them since 2008. I think 4 of the original birds are still alive and well, and I value them highly. We've got a total of around 30 now. We're intending to try to hatch a lot more this year. But then; we tried to hatch a lot more last year- and failed completely.

They're a good animal to have. They are, however, not chickens; something people insist on and persist in forgetting, constantly. If you want to keep guineas, and benefit from their company- you have to pay attention. Every day- just like all other livestock.

There are a lot of ways in which they are less trouble than chickens- when they are out free range, they find about 90% of their own food. They're good at surviving predators; both mammals and hawks. We still think they're promising.

But...

Ok, see; way too many "buts". Not for the guineas; for me. If you're thinking about keeping guineas- I'd encourage you to try them. They can be worth it. But. A great amount of the information on exactly how/when/what etc. that's available - is iffy. At best. "Guineas behave thusly..." is likely only half true. My own version of the various aphorisms regarding half-truths: "A half-truth is the most durable of lies."

And. Do I have time to write the monograph on keeping guineas? Not today. Besides; at this point in my relationship with them- I'm mostly aware of how much I don't know.

Which at the moment is my feeling in regard to the entire Universe.

So, cheer up. You're not alone.

:-)